--- title: "Molten Lava case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Molten Lava ($33.14) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 86.57% over 685 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Molten Lava](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Molten Lava A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava?window=all) Price · $33.14 · 50.98 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $29.82 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.57% · 685 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60 openings · below min 7 days · 87.71% ±11.63 568 openings 30 days · 86.57% ±10.59 685 openings since tracking started · 86.57% ±10.59 685 openings 48.0% 84.3% 120.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava?window=24h) | 60 | 84.30% ±35.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava?window=7d) | 568 | 87.71% ±11.6 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava) | 685 | 86.57% ±10.6 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/molten-lava?window=all) | 685 | 86.57% ±10.6 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 685 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $382 588 gems | 12.8% | 9 | 6.8 | 1.31× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $187 288 gems | 6.3% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.58× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $92.62 142 gems | 3.1% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.58× | | [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 17.0% | $58.75 90.39 gems | 33.5% | 112 | 116.4 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 20.0% | $53.05 81.62 gems | 35.6% | 126 | 137.0 | 0.92× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 15.0% | $15.95 24.54 gems | 8.0% | 105 | 102.7 | 1.02× | | [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 0.6% | 110 | 102.7 | 1.07× | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 0.1% | 215 | 205.5 | 1.05× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=molten-lava) [Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) Hidden $33.14 50.98 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) Hidden $33.14 50.98 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) Hidden $33.14 50.98 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) Hidden $33.14 50.98 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $33.14 50.98 gems $53.05 81.62 gems 1.60x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-factory-new) [Nami-Swan!](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Nami-Swan!) $33.14 50.98 gems $58.75 90.39 gems 1.77x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-factory-new) Hidden $33.14 50.98 gems $0.14 0.22 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:26 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-factory-new) Hidden $33.14 50.98 gems $0.14 0.22 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:26 UTC [Nova | Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-factory-new) Hidden $33.14 50.98 gems $58.75 90.39 gems 1.77x 2026-11-11 07:26 UTC [M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $33.14 50.98 gems $53.05 81.62 gems 1.60x 2026-11-11 07:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $33.14 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 21.0% mil spec 48.0% covert 16.0% restricted 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt