--- title: "Moon Rise case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Moon Rise ($76.89) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 88.70% over 359 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Moon Rise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Moon Rise A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise?window=all) Price · $76.89 · 118 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $69.20 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.70% · 359 openings, odds method Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80 openings · below min 7 days · 87.76% ±25.26 307 openings 30 days · 88.70% ±23.36 359 openings since tracking started · 88.70% ±23.36 359 openings 45.0% 95.3% 145.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise?window=24h) | 80 | 95.14% ±49.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise?window=7d) | 307 | 87.76% ±25.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise) | 359 | 88.70% ±23.4 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/moon-rise?window=all) | 359 | 88.70% ±23.4 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 371 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $583 898 gems | 84.3% | 38 | 37.1 | 1.02× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $93.81 144 gems | 13.6% | 28 | 37.1 | 0.75× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $3.15 4.85 gems | 0.9% | 90 | 74.2 | 1.21× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.99 3.06 gems | 0.6% | 59 | 74.2 | 0.80× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.59 2.45 gems | 0.5% | 65 | 74.2 | 0.88× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.65 1 gems | 0.2% | 91 | 74.2 | 1.23× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-11 04:21 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-11 04:18 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-11 04:18 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-11 03:50 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) [fenom](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/fenom) $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-11 03:50 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-10 23:26 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) [BOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BOTAIRTXonKICK%20Refbot%2Cai%2050kLBs) $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-10 23:26 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) [batapepe](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/batapepe) $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-10 14:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=moon-rise) [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $3.15 4.85 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $583 898 gems 7.59x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $3.15 4.85 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $1.99 3.06 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $1.59 2.45 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [HayzeusC](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HayzeusC) $76.89 118 gems $0.65 1 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $1.99 3.06 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $1.99 3.06 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $1.59 2.45 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $76.89 118 gems $0.65 1 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $76.89 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 10.0% covert 10.0% industrial 20.0% consumer 20.0% restricted 40.0% best hit $583 (7.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt