---
title: "Muddy Warfare case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Muddy Warfare ($9.95) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 14 items with odds, observed 79.02% over 2,793 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Muddy Warfare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Muddy Warfare

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare?window=all)

Price · $9.95 · 15.31 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $8.95 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.02% · 2,793 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 59.30% ±32.54 337 openings

7 days · 73.62% ±12.44 2,305 openings

30 days · 79.02% ±11.30 2,793 openings

since tracking started · 79.02% ±11.30 2,793 openings

26.0% 59.3% 92.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare?window=24h) | 337 | 59.30% ±32.5 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare?window=7d) | 2,305 | 73.62% ±12.4 | −2.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare) | 2,793 | 79.02% ±11.3 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddy-warfare?window=all) | 2,793 | 79.02% ±11.3 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,825 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir AWP \| AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $184 282 gems | 20.5% | 27 | 28.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $141 217 gems | 18.1% | 25 | 32.5 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $117 180 gems | 16.3% | 37 | 35.3 | 1.05× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $86.13 133 gems | 14.4% | 44 | 42.4 | 1.04× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $64.25 98.84 gems | 14.4% | 57 | 56.5 | 1.01× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $59.12 90.96 gems | 13.2% | 27 | 56.5 | 0.48× |
| [Nova \| Walnut (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.91 1.4 gems | 1.0% | 292 | 282.5 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.67 1.03 gems | 0.7% | 292 | 282.5 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.40 0.61 gems | 0.4% | 279 | 282.5 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.37 0.57 gems | 0.4% | 293 | 282.5 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-factory-new) | 11.1% | $0.23 0.36 gems | 0.3% | 304 | 313.6 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-factory-new) | 12.5% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 0.1% | 342 | 353.1 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.1% | 362 | 353.1 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Mudder (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.1% | 444 | 423.8 | 1.05× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=muddy-warfare)

[★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $9.95 15.31 gems $86.13 133 gems 8.65x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) Hidden $9.95 15.31 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) Hidden $9.95 15.31 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) [Cow](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Cow) $9.95 15.31 gems $0.37 0.57 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-factory-new) Hidden $9.95 15.31 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Mudder (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-factory-new) Hidden $9.95 15.31 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.95 15.31 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.95 15.31 gems $0.40 0.61 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[UMP-45 | Mudder (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-factory-new) Hidden $9.95 15.31 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mudder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-factory-new) [compl1cated](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/compl1cated) $9.95 15.31 gems $0.23 0.36 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $9.95 | 89.98% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 13.5% covert knife 2.6% industrial 34.9% covert 4.0% Common 25.0% mil spec 10.0% #777777 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt