--- title: "MUDDYWATER case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "MUDDYWATER ($103.21) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 80.42% over 585 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater rendered: 2026-11-12T16:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [MUDDYWATER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · MUDDYWATER A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater?window=all) Price · $103.21 · 159 gems Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 80.42% · 585 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 435 openings · below min 30 days · 585 openings · below min since tracking started · 585 openings · below min -0.5% 522.5% 1045.5% **Small sample.** 585 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater?window=24h) | 14 | 411.86% ±633.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater?window=7d) | 435 | 98.32% ±46.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater) | 585 | 80.42% ±34.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/muddywater?window=all) | 585 | 80.42% ±34.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Clash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $103 159 gems $4,703 7,236 gems 45.57x 2026-11-12 14:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $103 159 gems $4,703 7,236 gems 45.57x 2026-11-09 00:25 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $103 159 gems $4,029 6,199 gems 39.04x 2026-11-09 05:04 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $103 159 gems $4,029 6,199 gems 39.04x 2026-11-09 00:27 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) Hidden $103 159 gems $3,777 5,811 gems 36.60x 2026-11-08 16:45 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $103 159 gems $3,135 4,823 gems 30.38x 2026-11-09 23:57 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) [KillazAce](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/KillazAce) $103 159 gems $2,902 4,465 gems 28.12x 2026-11-09 05:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 159 gems $1,143 1,759 gems 11.08x 2026-11-05 22:22 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [King-Hassany](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/King-Hassany) $103 159 gems $691 1,064 gems 6.70x 2026-11-12 14:55 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $103 159 gems $691 1,064 gems 6.70x 2026-11-09 02:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=muddywater) [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 159 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 14:55 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 159 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 14:55 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $103 159 gems $278 428 gems 2.69x 2026-11-12 14:55 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 159 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 14:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $103 159 gems $4,703 7,236 gems 45.57x 2026-11-12 14:55 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [King-Hassany](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/King-Hassany) $103 159 gems $691 1,064 gems 6.70x 2026-11-12 14:55 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 159 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 12:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 159 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 12:27 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $103 159 gems $278 428 gems 2.69x 2026-11-12 12:27 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $103 159 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 12:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $4,703 (45.57x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.42 on average: an expected loss of $19.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt