--- title: "Musical Chairs case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Musical Chairs ($2.20) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 12 items with odds, observed 91.06% over 4,568 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs rendered: 2026-11-11T21:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Musical Chairs](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Musical Chairs A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs?window=all) Price · $2.20 · 3.39 gems Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $1.98 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.06% · 4,568 openings, odds method Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68.63% ±29.57 388 openings 7 days · 87.59% ±9.38 3,859 openings 30 days · 91.06% ±8.62 4,568 openings since tracking started · 91.06% ±8.62 4,568 openings 38.5% 69.5% 100.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs?window=24h) | 388 | 68.63% ±29.6 | −1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs?window=7d) | 3,859 | 87.59% ±9.38 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs) | 4,568 | 91.06% ±8.62 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/musical-chairs?window=all) | 4,568 | 91.06% ±8.62 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,605 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Music Kit \| Halo, The Master Chief Collection music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-halo-the-master-chief-collection) | 1 in 200 | $91.66 141 gems | 23.1% | 24 | 23.0 | 1.04× | | [Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, The Devil Went Clubbing in Georgia music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-austin-wintory-the-devil-went-clubbing-in-georgia) | 1 in 40 | $8.28 12.74 gems | 10.4% | 105 | 115.1 | 0.91× | | [Music Kit \| TWERL and Ekko & Sidetrack, Under Bright Lights music kit](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-twerl-and-ekko-and-sidetrack-under-bright-lights) | 1 in 33 | $4.97 7.64 gems | 7.5% | 143 | 138.2 | 1.04× | | [Music Kit \| Perfect World, Ay Hey music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-perfect-world-ay-hey) | 1 in 20 | $3.48 5.35 gems | 8.8% | 219 | 230.3 | 0.95× | | [Music Kit \| Sarah Schachner, KOLIBRI music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-sarah-schachner-kolibri) | 1 in 20 | $3.48 5.35 gems | 8.8% | 234 | 230.3 | 1.02× | | [Music Kit \| The Verkkars, EZ4ENCE music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-the-verkkars-ez4ence) | 1 in 13 | $1.96 3.01 gems | 7.4% | 370 | 345.4 | 1.07× | | [Music Kit \| AWOLNATION, I Am music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-awolnation-i-am) | 1 in 13 | $1.79 2.76 gems | 6.8% | 394 | 345.4 | 1.14× | | [Music Kit \| Feed Me, High Noon music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-feed-me-high-noon) | 1 in 13 | $1.61 2.48 gems | 6.1% | 329 | 345.4 | 0.95× | | [Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Total Domination music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-daniel-sadowski-total-domination) | 10.0% | $1.35 2.08 gems | 6.8% | 448 | 460.5 | 0.97× | | [Music Kit \| Laura Shigihara: Work Hard, Play Hard music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-laura-shigihara-work-hard-play-hard) | 12.5% | $1.17 1.8 gems | 7.4% | 575 | 575.6 | 1.00× | | [Music Kit \| Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) | 15.0% | $0.55 0.84 gems | 4.1% | 687 | 690.8 | 0.99× | | [Music Kit \| Humanity's Last Breath, Void music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-humanitys-last-breath-void) | 24.0% | $0.23 0.35 gems | 2.8% | 1,077 | 1105.2 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=musical-chairs) [Music Kit | Humanity's Last Breath, Void music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-humanitys-last-breath-void) Hidden $2.20 3.39 gems $0.23 0.35 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) Hidden $2.20 3.39 gems $0.55 0.84 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) Hidden $2.20 3.39 gems $0.55 0.84 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Music Kit | Feed Me, High Noon music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-feed-me-high-noon) Hidden $2.20 3.39 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.73x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Music Kit | Humanity's Last Breath, Void music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-humanitys-last-breath-void) Hidden $2.20 3.39 gems $0.23 0.35 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Music Kit | Sarah Schachner, KOLIBRI music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-sarah-schachner-kolibri) [KennyFerelli](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/KennyFerelli) $2.20 3.39 gems $3.48 5.35 gems 1.58x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Music Kit | Laura Shigihara: Work Hard, Play Hard music kit · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-laura-shigihara-work-hard-play-hard) Hidden $2.20 3.39 gems $1.17 1.8 gems 0.53x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Music Kit | Chipzel, ~Yellow Magic~ music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-chipzel-yellow-magic) Hidden $2.20 3.39 gems $0.55 0.84 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Music Kit | Daniel Sadowski, Total Domination music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-daniel-sadowski-total-domination) Hidden $2.20 3.39 gems $1.35 2.08 gems 0.61x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Music Kit | Perfect World, Ay Hey music kit · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-perfect-world-ay-hey) Hidden $2.20 3.39 gems $3.48 5.35 gems 1.58x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.20 | 89.96% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 7 15.0% other 3.5% High Grade 54.0% blue 15.0% high 12.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt