--- title: "Mystic Elements case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystic Elements ($188.42) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 93.90% over 330 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Mystic Elements](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Mystic Elements A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements?window=all) Price · $188.42 · 290 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $169.58 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.90% · 330 openings, odds method Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 85.47% ±42.19 240 openings 30 days · 93.90% ±35.98 330 openings since tracking started · 93.90% ±35.98 330 openings 42.5% 170.8% 299.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements?window=24h) | 42 | 197.35% ±100.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements?window=7d) | 240 | 85.47% ±42.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements) | 330 | 93.90% ±36.0 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-elements?window=all) | 330 | 93.90% ±36.0 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 330 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $7,945 12,224 gems | 23.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $2,237 3,441 gems | 19.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $641 986 gems | 11.3% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $522 802 gems | 15.4% | 16 | 16.5 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $238 366 gems | 14.0% | 30 | 33.0 | 0.91× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $69.44 107 gems | 4.1% | 33 | 33.0 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 10.0% | $57.02 87.73 gems | 3.4% | 31 | 33.0 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $43.41 66.79 gems | 3.8% | 50 | 49.5 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 15.0% | $32.42 49.88 gems | 2.9% | 51 | 49.5 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $10.70 16.46 gems | 1.9% | 101 | 99.0 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $188 290 gems $7,945 12,224 gems 42.17x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [Live @ Kick/JaekCreates](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20%40%20Kick%2FJaekCreates) $188 290 gems $7,945 12,224 gems 42.17x 2026-11-04 00:15 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $2,237 3,441 gems 11.87x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $2,237 3,441 gems 11.87x 2026-11-10 16:41 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $2,237 3,441 gems 11.87x 2026-11-04 19:39 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $2,237 3,441 gems 11.87x 2026-11-04 19:29 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $2,237 3,441 gems 11.87x 2026-11-04 00:10 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $641 986 gems 3.40x 2026-11-09 13:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [\[MLP\] Pinkie Pie](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%5BMLP%5D%20%20Pinkie%20Pie) $188 290 gems $641 986 gems 3.40x 2026-11-06 15:39 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [BLEE BAZSYKHA](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BLEE%20BAZSYKHA) $188 290 gems $641 986 gems 3.40x 2026-11-06 13:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=mystic-elements) [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $188 290 gems $10.70 16.46 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) Hidden $188 290 gems $43.41 66.79 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $238 366 gems 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) Hidden $188 290 gems $43.41 66.79 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $2,237 3,441 gems 11.87x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $188 290 gems $7,945 12,224 gems 42.17x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $238 366 gems 1.26x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $32.42 49.88 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $188 290 gems $57.02 87.73 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $188 290 gems $69.44 107 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $188 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 37.0% restricted 8.0% classified 25.0% Legendary 30.0% best hit $7,945 (42.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt