--- title: "Mystic Seas case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystic Seas ($33.46) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 85.49% over 4,868 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas rendered: 2026-11-11T22:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Mystic Seas](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Mystic Seas A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas?window=all) Price · $33.46 · 51.47 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $30.11 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.49% · 4,868 openings, odds method Variance · 28.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 116.97% ±44.83 550 openings 7 days · 83.46% ±17.21 3,730 openings 30 days · 85.49% ±15.07 4,868 openings since tracking started · 85.49% ±15.07 4,868 openings 65.5% 114.0% 162.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas?window=24h) | 550 | 116.97% ±44.8 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas?window=7d) | 3,730 | 83.46% ±17.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas) | 4,868 | 85.49% ±15.1 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/mystic-seas?window=all) | 4,868 | 85.49% ±15.1 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,900 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,116 3,255 gems | 35.1% | 25 | 24.5 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $1,251 1,925 gems | 20.8% | 19 | 24.5 | 0.78× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $638 982 gems | 10.6% | 23 | 24.5 | 0.94× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $359 553 gems | 6.0% | 30 | 24.5 | 1.22× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $85.80 132 gems | 2.8% | 35 | 49.0 | 0.71× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $38.68 59.51 gems | 2.6% | 81 | 98.0 | 0.83× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 15.0% | $23.61 36.32 gems | 11.8% | 739 | 735.0 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 20.0% | $11.54 17.75 gems | 7.7% | 954 | 980.0 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.24 4.98 gems | 2.2% | 1,005 | 980.0 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) | 40.0% | $0.40 0.61 gems | 0.5% | 1,989 | 1960.0 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-11 07:49 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-11 07:45 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-10 20:52 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-10 00:56 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-10 00:54 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-09 20:17 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-09 03:19 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $2,116 3,255 gems 63.25x 2026-11-08 01:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=mystic-seas) [Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $3.24 4.98 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $23.61 36.32 gems 0.71x 2026-11-11 21:28 UTC [Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $3.24 4.98 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:28 UTC [Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $3.24 4.98 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:28 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $11.54 17.75 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 21:28 UTC [M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $0.40 0.61 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $23.61 36.32 gems 0.71x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $11.54 17.75 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $3.24 4.98 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) Hidden $33.46 51.47 gems $11.54 17.75 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $33.46 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 37.0% covert 0.5% sunny 0.5% mil spec 22.0% Uncommon 40.0% best hit $2,116 (63.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt