--- title: "Narwhal case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Narwhal ($35.04) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 92.89% over 407 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Narwhal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Narwhal A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal?window=all) Price · $35.04 · 53.91 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $31.53 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.89% · 407 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 95.37% ±12.00 325 openings 30 days · 92.89% ±10.73 407 openings since tracking started · 92.89% ±10.73 407 openings 73.5% 107.5% 141.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal?window=24h) | 42 | 107.52% ±33.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal?window=7d) | 325 | 95.37% ±12.0 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal) | 407 | 92.89% ±10.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/narwhal?window=all) | 407 | 92.89% ±10.7 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 407 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 10.0% | $93.27 143 gems | 29.6% | 41 | 40.7 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 10.0% | $84.16 129 gems | 26.7% | 49 | 40.7 | 1.20× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 10.0% | $74.52 115 gems | 23.6% | 41 | 40.7 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 10.0% | $59.74 91.9 gems | 18.9% | 35 | 40.7 | 0.86× | | [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.15 3.31 gems | 1.0% | 64 | 61.0 | 1.05× | | [P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.1% | 123 | 61.0 | 2.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.1% | 54 | 61.0 | 0.88× | | [P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.0% | 123 | 61.1 | 2.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=narwhal) [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) Hidden $35.04 53.91 gems $84.16 129 gems 2.40x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC [MAC-10 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $35.04 53.91 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC [P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $35.04 53.91 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC [P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) [Gustavo Fring](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Gustavo%20Fring) $35.04 53.91 gems $93.27 143 gems 2.66x 2026-11-11 05:23 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $35.04 53.91 gems $74.52 115 gems 2.13x 2026-11-10 22:03 UTC [MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $35.04 53.91 gems $2.15 3.31 gems 0.06x 2026-11-10 22:03 UTC [P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $35.04 53.91 gems $93.27 143 gems 2.66x 2026-11-10 22:03 UTC [P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $35.04 53.91 gems $93.27 143 gems 2.66x 2026-11-10 22:03 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $35.04 53.91 gems $74.52 115 gems 2.13x 2026-11-10 22:03 UTC [P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) [w1lly18](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/w1lly18) $35.04 53.91 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $35.04 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 20.0% covert 10.0% gold 10.0% restricted 15.0% mil spec 30.0% #4b69ff 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt