--- title: "Natural Selection case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Natural Selection ($177.85) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 81.27% over 618 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Natural Selection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Natural Selection A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection?window=all) Price · $177.85 · 274 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $160.06 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.27% · 618 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 85.29% ±22.35 518 openings 30 days · 81.27% ±20.46 618 openings since tracking started · 81.27% ±20.46 618 openings 21.0% 95.0% 169.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection?window=24h) | 48 | 94.97% ±73.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection?window=7d) | 518 | 85.29% ±22.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection) | 618 | 81.27% ±20.5 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/natural-selection?window=all) | 618 | 81.27% ±20.5 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 654 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2,717 4,179 gems | 33.9% | 10 | 13.1 | 0.76× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,540 2,369 gems | 28.9% | 24 | 19.6 | 1.22× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $592 910 gems | 18.5% | 32 | 32.7 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $135 207 gems | 8.4% | 68 | 65.4 | 1.04× | | [AUG \| Copperhead (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-copperhead-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $59.24 91.14 gems | 3.7% | 71 | 65.4 | 1.09× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 15.0% | $37.05 57 gems | 3.5% | 100 | 98.1 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 15.0% | $20.64 31.76 gems | 1.9% | 83 | 98.1 | 0.85× | | [SG 553 \| Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-factory-new) | 20.0% | $7.57 11.64 gems | 0.9% | 128 | 130.8 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $2.02 3.11 gems | 0.3% | 138 | 130.8 | 1.06× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Dartt](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dartt) $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-10 04:44 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [1010010101](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/1010010101) $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-08 13:23 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-07 07:49 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-06 15:14 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-06 10:09 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [news](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/news) $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-06 07:35 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-05 12:43 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-02 22:56 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $178 274 gems $2,717 4,179 gems 15.28x 2026-11-02 22:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=natural-selection) [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $178 274 gems $1,540 2,369 gems 8.66x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $178 274 gems $7.57 11.64 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $178 274 gems $7.57 11.64 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $178 274 gems $7.57 11.64 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $178 274 gems $7.57 11.64 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $178 274 gems $1,540 2,369 gems 8.66x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [SG 553 | Gator Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-gator-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $178 274 gems $7.57 11.64 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $178 274 gems $37.05 57 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-field-tested) Hidden $178 274 gems $20.64 31.76 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-field-tested) Hidden $178 274 gems $20.64 31.76 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 10:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $178 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 2.0% covert 23.0% mil spec 20.0% restricted 15.0% Industrial Grade 20.0% classified 20.0% best hit $2,717 (15.28x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt