--- title: "Nemesis case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nemesis ($904.10) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 94.21% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Nemesis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Nemesis A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis?window=all) Price · $904.10 · 1,391 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $813.69 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.21% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 32.5% 94.0% 155.5% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis?window=7d) | 12 | 94.21% ±60.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis) | 12 | 94.21% ±60.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nemesis?window=all) | 12 | 94.21% ±60.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 40.0% | $2,003 3,082 gems | 98.5% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $162 250 gems | 1.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 10.0% | $28.43 43.74 gems | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.25 8.07 gems | 0.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.23 4.97 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.58 3.97 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.72 2.65 gems | 0.0% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $2,003 3,082 gems 2.22x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $2,003 3,082 gems 2.22x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $904 1,391 gems $2,003 3,082 gems 2.22x 2026-11-09 11:21 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $2,003 3,082 gems 2.22x 2026-11-09 11:21 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $2,003 3,082 gems 2.22x 2026-11-09 11:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=nemesis) [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $162 250 gems 0.18x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [P90 | Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $2.58 3.97 gems 0.00x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $2,003 3,082 gems 2.22x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $1.72 2.65 gems 0.00x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $2,003 3,082 gems 2.22x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $904 1,391 gems $5.25 8.07 gems 0.01x 2026-11-09 11:27 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $1.72 2.65 gems 0.00x 2026-11-09 11:21 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $2,003 3,082 gems 2.22x 2026-11-09 11:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $28.43 43.74 gems 0.03x 2026-11-09 11:21 UTC [AWP | Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) Hidden $904 1,391 gems $1.72 2.65 gems 0.00x 2026-11-09 11:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $904 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 45.0% classified 20.0% restricted 25.0% violet 10.0% best hit $2,003 (2.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt