---
title: "Neon Nest case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Neon Nest ($15.07) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 11 items with odds, observed 95.92% over 1,579 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Neon Nest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Neon Nest

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest?window=all)

Price · $15.07 · 23.19 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $13.56 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.92% · 1,579 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.44% ±40.16 208 openings

7 days · 100.58% ±16.64 1,212 openings

30 days · 95.92% ±14.58 1,579 openings

since tracking started · 95.92% ±14.58 1,579 openings

58.5% 99.3% 140.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest?window=24h) | 208 | 99.44% ±40.2 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest?window=7d) | 1,212 | 100.58% ±16.6 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest) | 1,579 | 95.92% ±14.6 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/neon-nest?window=all) | 1,579 | 95.92% ±14.6 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,620 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $833 1,282 gems | 12.3% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $169 260 gems | 12.5% | 23 | 16.2 | 1.42× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $108 167 gems | 10.0% | 17 | 20.3 | 0.84× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $87.39 134 gems | 12.9% | 48 | 32.4 | 1.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $54.91 84.47 gems | 12.1% | 62 | 48.6 | 1.28× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $34.22 52.64 gems | 12.6% | 74 | 81.0 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $23.89 36.75 gems | 8.8% | 75 | 81.0 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.66 16.4 gems | 7.9% | 139 | 162.0 | 0.86× |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-well-worn) | 20.0% | $4.82 7.41 gems | 7.1% | 322 | 324.0 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 22.6% | $2.16 3.32 gems | 3.6% | 385 | 365.3 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.3% | 473 | 486.0 | 0.97× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $15.07 23.19 gems $833 1,282 gems 55.28x 2026-11-07 09:56 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $15.07 23.19 gems $833 1,282 gems 55.28x 2026-11-06 13:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=neon-nest)

[Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) Hidden $15.07 23.19 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) [Nami-Swan!](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Nami-Swan!) $15.07 23.19 gems $10.66 16.4 gems 0.71x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) Hidden $15.07 23.19 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[★ Kukri Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-stained-battle-scarred) [Liborosak](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Liborosak) $15.07 23.19 gems $108 167 gems 7.18x 2026-11-11 16:58 UTC

[MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-well-worn) Hidden $15.07 23.19 gems $4.82 7.41 gems 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) Hidden $15.07 23.19 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-well-worn) [Nami-Swan!](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Nami-Swan!) $15.07 23.19 gems $4.82 7.41 gems 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-well-worn) [Liborosak](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Liborosak) $15.07 23.19 gems $4.82 7.41 gems 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.07 23.19 gems $34.22 52.64 gems 2.27x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-field-tested) Hidden $15.07 23.19 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $15.07 | 89.98% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.2% covert 7.2% rare 5.0% restricted 27.6% Mythical 10.0% Restricted 20.0% blue 30.0% best hit $833 (55.28x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt