--- title: "Nexus Nebula case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nexus Nebula ($26.77) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 78.44% over 2,324 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula rendered: 2026-11-11T18:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Nexus Nebula](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Nexus Nebula A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula?window=all) Price · $26.77 · 41.19 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $24.09 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.44% · 2,324 openings, odds method Variance · 45.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 118 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 238 openings · below min 7 days · 70.47% ±31.45 1,759 openings 30 days · 78.44% ±27.37 2,324 openings since tracking started · 78.44% ±27.37 2,324 openings 6.0% 92.0% 178.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula?window=24h) | 238 | 91.91% ±85.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula?window=7d) | 1,759 | 70.47% ±31.5 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula) | 2,324 | 78.44% ±27.4 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nexus-nebula?window=all) | 2,324 | 78.44% ±27.4 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,359 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,555 7,007 gems | 18.9% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,789 2,752 gems | 18.6% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $741 1,141 gems | 15.4% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $340 523 gems | 16.2% | 26 | 27.1 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $76.83 118 gems | 9.6% | 68 | 70.8 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $21.70 33.38 gems | 4.5% | 116 | 118.0 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.32 22.03 gems | 3.0% | 109 | 118.0 | 0.92× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.43 17.59 gems | 2.4% | 112 | 118.0 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $6.10 9.39 gems | 5.1% | 470 | 471.8 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $4.53 6.97 gems | 3.8% | 467 | 471.8 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.89 4.44 gems | 2.4% | 477 | 471.8 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.31 0.48 gems | 0.3% | 496 | 471.8 | 1.05× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $4,555 7,007 gems 170.1x 2026-11-04 16:13 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $26.77 41.19 gems $1,789 2,752 gems 66.82x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $1,789 2,752 gems 66.82x 2026-11-07 23:23 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $1,789 2,752 gems 66.82x 2026-11-05 17:01 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $1,789 2,752 gems 66.82x 2026-11-05 14:04 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $1,789 2,752 gems 66.82x 2026-11-03 18:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $1,789 2,752 gems 66.82x 2026-11-03 17:47 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $741 1,141 gems 27.69x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $741 1,141 gems 27.69x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $741 1,141 gems 27.69x 2026-11-08 23:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=nexus-nebula) [FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $2.89 4.44 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [P2000 | Space Race (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $4.53 6.97 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $6.10 9.39 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $2.89 4.44 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $6.10 9.39 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) [STIANHAY](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/STIANHAY) $26.77 41.19 gems $14.32 22.03 gems 0.53x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $2.89 4.44 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $6.10 9.39 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [P2000 | Space Race (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $4.53 6.97 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [P2000 | Space Race (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.77 41.19 gems $4.53 6.97 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $26.77 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.1% Covert 0.3% covert 20.5% gold 1.1% classified 13.0% restricted 25.0% Restricted 40.0% best hit $4,555 (170.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt