---
title: "Night Raid case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Night Raid ($36.42) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 76.76% over 875 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Night Raid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Night Raid

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid?window=all)

Price · $36.42 · 56.03 gems

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $32.78 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.76% · 875 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86 openings · below min

7 days · 73.47% ±23.38 661 openings

30 days · 76.76% ±20.32 875 openings

since tracking started · 76.76% ±20.32 875 openings

0.0% 65.3% 130.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid?window=24h) | 86 | 65.26% ±64.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid?window=7d) | 661 | 73.47% ±23.4 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid) | 875 | 76.76% ±20.3 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-raid?window=all) | 875 | 76.76% ±20.3 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 881 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,465 2,253 gems | 8.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,004 1,545 gems | 9.2% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $710 1,092 gems | 10.8% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $397 610 gems | 12.1% | 5 | 8.8 | 0.57× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $255 392 gems | 15.5% | 21 | 17.6 | 1.19× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $152 234 gems | 9.3% | 15 | 17.6 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $51.20 78.77 gems | 15.6% | 99 | 88.1 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $28.46 43.79 gems | 8.7% | 88 | 88.1 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 12.5% | $15.89 24.44 gems | 6.1% | 103 | 110.1 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.22 8.03 gems | 2.4% | 146 | 132.2 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 21.5% | $1.94 2.98 gems | 1.3% | 188 | 189.4 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.14 0.21 gems | 0.1% | 211 | 220.3 | 0.96× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $1,465 2,253 gems 40.21x 2026-11-04 04:31 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $1,004 1,545 gems 27.57x 2026-11-09 14:37 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $710 1,092 gems 19.50x 2026-11-11 09:12 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $710 1,092 gems 19.50x 2026-11-09 21:35 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $710 1,092 gems 19.50x 2026-11-07 12:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=night-raid)

[AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $1.94 2.98 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $28.46 43.79 gems 0.78x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

[AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $15.89 24.44 gems 0.44x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

[G3SG1 | Ventilator (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ventilator-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $0.14 0.21 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $5.22 8.03 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $1.94 2.98 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $5.22 8.03 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $51.20 78.77 gems 1.41x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $5.22 8.03 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) Hidden $36.42 56.03 gems $1.94 2.98 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $36.42 | 90.00% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.2% covert 14.8% #EB4B4B 1.0% Ancient 10.0% mil spec 12.5% classified 15.0% Mythical 21.5% Rare 25.0% best hit $1,465 (40.21x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt