--- title: "Night Walker case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Night Walker ($2.81) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.89% from 10 items with odds, observed 96.57% over 12.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Night Walker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Night Walker A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker?window=all) Price · $2.81 · 4.32 gems Advertised RTP · 89.89% · EV $2.52 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.57% · 12.7K openings, odds method Variance · 51.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 73.27% ±32.81 1,839 openings 7 days · 94.28% ±13.59 10.7K openings 30 days · 96.57% ±12.50 12.7K openings since tracking started · 96.57% ±12.50 12.7K openings 40.0% 74.8% 109.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker?window=24h) | 1,839 | 73.27% ±32.8 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker?window=7d) | 10.7K | 94.28% ±13.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker) | 12.7K | 96.57% ±12.5 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/night-walker?window=all) | 12.7K | 96.57% ±12.5 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $748 1,150 gems | 14.8% | 10 | 6.4 | 1.56× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $398 612 gems | 7.9% | 9 | 6.4 | 1.41× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $140 215 gems | 8.3% | 20 | 19.2 | 1.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $47.65 73.3 gems | 9.4% | 47 | 64.0 | 0.73× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $29.30 45.08 gems | 8.7% | 80 | 96.0 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $14.83 22.82 gems | 8.8% | 181 | 191.9 | 0.94× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $6.42 9.88 gems | 17.8% | 865 | 895.6 | 0.97× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 10.0% | $2.65 4.08 gems | 10.5% | 1,296 | 1279.5 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.33 2.04 gems | 5.3% | 1,295 | 1279.5 | 1.01× | | [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) | 70.0% | $0.31 0.47 gems | 8.5% | 8,992 | 8956.5 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) [paris0743](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/paris0743) $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-09 09:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-09 04:21 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-07 22:43 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-07 00:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-06 01:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-06 00:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-05 21:58 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) [Dr\*\*\*yl](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dr***yl-5080977) $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-04 21:58 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-04 09:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $748 1,150 gems 266.2x 2026-11-03 20:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=night-walker) [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $6.42 9.88 gems 2.29x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) [Anonymous763873](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Anonymous763873) $2.81 4.32 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $2.65 4.08 gems 0.94x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $2.81 4.32 gems $1.33 2.04 gems 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.81 | 89.89% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.1% covert 0.7% classified 9.3% pink 20.0% violet 70.0% best hit $748 (266.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.89 on average: an expected loss of $10.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt