--- title: "No Swag? case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "No Swag? ($16.44) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 6 items with odds, observed 91.93% over 7,849 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag rendered: 2026-11-11T18:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [No Swag?](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · No Swag? A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag?window=all) Price · $16.44 · 25.29 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $14.79 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.93% · 7,849 openings, odds method Variance · 23.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.01% ±29.02 1,086 openings 7 days · 93.41% ±11.86 6,502 openings 30 days · 91.93% ±10.79 7,849 openings since tracking started · 91.93% ±10.79 7,849 openings 50.5% 80.0% 109.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag?window=24h) | 1,086 | 80.01% ±29.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag?window=7d) | 6,502 | 93.41% ±11.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag) | 7,849 | 91.93% ±10.8 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/no-swag?window=all) | 7,849 | 91.93% ±10.8 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,978 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $727 1,119 gems | 49.2% | 81 | 79.8 | 1.02× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $278 428 gems | 18.8% | 82 | 79.8 | 1.03× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $185 285 gems | 12.5% | 78 | 79.8 | 0.98× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $135 208 gems | 9.1% | 74 | 79.8 | 0.93× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $79.05 122 gems | 5.3% | 93 | 79.8 | 1.17× | | [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) | 95.0% | $0.79 1.21 gems | 5.1% | 7,570 | 7579.1 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-11 05:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-11 03:23 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-11 01:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-10 20:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [ILYA](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ILYA) $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [Live kick/vaultycs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20kick%2Fvaultycs) $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-10 19:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [vaiska](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/vaiska) $16.44 25.29 gems $727 1,119 gems 44.24x 2026-11-10 19:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=no-swag) [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) [Danny](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Danny) $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $16.44 25.29 gems $0.79 1.21 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $16.44 | 89.99% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 2.0% Extraordinary 1.0% extraordinary 2.0% Mythical 95.0% best hit $727 (44.24x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt