--- title: "Noob Loadout case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Noob Loadout ($1.32) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.64% from 10 items with odds, observed 95.85% over 9,359 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout rendered: 2026-11-11T17:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Noob Loadout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Noob Loadout A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout?window=all) Price · $1.32 · 2.03 gems Advertised RTP · 89.64% · EV $1.18 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.85% · 9,359 openings, odds method Variance · 14.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.33% ±19.26 1,536 openings 7 days · 97.33% ±8.39 8,099 openings 30 days · 95.85% ±7.80 9,359 openings since tracking started · 95.85% ±7.80 9,359 openings 64.5% 85.5% 106.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout?window=24h) | 1,536 | 84.33% ±19.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout?window=7d) | 8,099 | 97.33% ±8.39 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout) | 9,359 | 95.85% ±7.80 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/noob-loadout?window=all) | 9,359 | 95.85% ±7.80 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,549 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $140 215 gems | 11.8% | 13 | 9.5 | 1.36× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $34.47 53.03 gems | 14.6% | 55 | 47.7 | 1.15× | | [PP-Bizon \| Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-antique-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.03 7.74 gems | 12.8% | 283 | 286.5 | 0.99× | | [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.59 3.99 gems | 11.0% | 486 | 477.5 | 1.02× | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.39 3.68 gems | 10.1% | 471 | 477.5 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Acid Etched weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched) | 11.4% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 10.6% | 1,076 | 1088.6 | 0.99× | | [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.85 1.3 gems | 8.9% | 1,205 | 1193.6 | 1.01× | | [M249 \| Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) | 12.5% | $0.83 1.27 gems | 8.7% | 1,191 | 1193.6 | 1.00× | | [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.42 0.64 gems | 8.8% | 2,385 | 2387.3 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Freight (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.13 0.2 gems | 2.7% | 2,384 | 2387.3 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) [ｓｔａｙ ᵀʳⁱᵖᵖʸ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%EF%BD%93%EF%BD%94%EF%BD%81%EF%BD%99%20%E1%B5%80%CA%B3%E2%81%B1%E1%B5%96%E1%B5%96%CA%B8) $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-10 17:51 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-08 19:07 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-08 08:27 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-08 00:32 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) [Newnoob](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Newnoob) $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-07 06:55 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-06 21:34 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) [loledis192](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/loledis192) $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-06 19:05 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) [Golyslop](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Golyslop) $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-06 17:42 UTC [G3SG1 | Chronos (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $140 215 gems 105.9x 2026-11-06 02:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=noob-loadout) [P2000 | Acid Etched weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.83x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $0.42 0.64 gems 0.32x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [M249 | Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $0.83 1.27 gems 0.63x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $0.42 0.64 gems 0.32x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $0.85 1.3 gems 0.64x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [Zapi99](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Zapi99) $1.32 2.03 gems $2.59 3.99 gems 1.97x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [M249 | Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $0.83 1.27 gems 0.63x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $0.42 0.64 gems 0.32x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $2.39 3.68 gems 1.81x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [P90 | Freight (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-factory-new) Hidden $1.32 2.03 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $1.32 | 89.64% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 3.1% classified 18.0% covert 5.0% violet 23.9% Mythical 25.0% Rare 25.0% best hit $140 (105.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.64 on average: an expected loss of $10.36 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt