--- title: "Nostalgia case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nostalgia ($164.87) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 104.86% over 304 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Nostalgia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Nostalgia A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia?window=all) Price · $164.87 · 254 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $148.38 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.86% · 304 openings, odds method Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 27 openings · below min 7 days · 104.51% ±16.33 291 openings 30 days · 104.86% ±15.98 304 openings since tracking started · 104.86% ±15.98 304 openings 42.0% 96.2% 150.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia?window=24h) | 27 | 96.17% ±53.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia?window=7d) | 291 | 104.51% ±16.3 | +1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia) | 304 | 104.86% ±16.0 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nostalgia?window=all) | 304 | 104.86% ±16.0 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 304 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) | 1 in 20 | $807 1,242 gems | 27.2% | 21 | 15.2 | 1.38× | | [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) | 1 in 20 | $717 1,102 gems | 24.1% | 16 | 15.2 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $510 784 gems | 17.2% | 17 | 15.2 | 1.12× | | [★ Classic Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife) | 1 in 20 | $223 343 gems | 7.5% | 24 | 15.2 | 1.58× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $191 294 gems | 6.4% | 12 | 15.2 | 0.79× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $109 167 gems | 3.7% | 17 | 15.2 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $68.06 105 gems | 2.3% | 19 | 15.2 | 1.25× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $46.46 71.48 gems | 3.1% | 30 | 30.4 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 15.0% | $35.77 55.03 gems | 3.6% | 36 | 45.6 | 0.79× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 15.0% | $24.71 38.02 gems | 2.5% | 42 | 45.6 | 0.92× | | [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 25.0% | $13.80 21.23 gems | 2.3% | 70 | 76.0 | 0.92× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) [Dartt](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dartt) $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-10 04:40 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-09 21:40 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-09 21:38 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-08 18:43 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-08 18:43 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) [JackedGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/JackedGambles) $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-08 18:42 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-08 18:42 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-08 17:30 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-08 01:17 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) Hidden $165 254 gems $807 1,242 gems 4.90x 2026-11-08 00:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=nostalgia) [Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $46.46 71.48 gems 0.28x 2026-11-10 15:27 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $165 254 gems $510 784 gems 3.09x 2026-11-10 15:27 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $165 254 gems $510 784 gems 3.09x 2026-11-10 15:27 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $165 254 gems $510 784 gems 3.09x 2026-11-10 15:27 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $165 254 gems $35.77 55.03 gems 0.22x 2026-11-10 15:27 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) [Thomas the termonuclear bomb](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Thomas%20the%20termonuclear%20bomb) $165 254 gems $35.77 55.03 gems 0.22x 2026-11-10 15:27 UTC [Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $68.06 105 gems 0.41x 2026-11-10 15:22 UTC [P250 | Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $13.80 21.23 gems 0.08x 2026-11-10 15:22 UTC [P250 | Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $13.80 21.23 gems 0.08x 2026-11-10 15:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $46.46 71.48 gems 0.28x 2026-11-10 15:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $165 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 25.0% classified 35.0% restricted 40.0% best hit $807 (4.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt