--- title: "Nothing But Coal case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nothing But Coal ($35.85) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 81.65% over 1,443 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal rendered: 2026-11-11T19:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Nothing But Coal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Nothing But Coal A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal?window=all) Price · $35.85 · 55.15 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $32.26 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.65% · 1,443 openings, odds method Variance · 20.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 130.44% ±77.46 134 openings 7 days · 83.38% ±27.21 1,086 openings 30 days · 81.65% ±23.61 1,443 openings since tracking started · 81.65% ±23.61 1,443 openings 52.5% 130.5% 208.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal?window=24h) | 134 | 130.44% ±77.5 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal?window=7d) | 1,086 | 83.38% ±27.2 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal) | 1,443 | 81.65% ±23.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nothing-but-coal?window=all) | 1,443 | 81.65% ±23.6 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,459 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,597 2,457 gems | 49.5% | 12 | 14.6 | 0.82× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $241 371 gems | 29.9% | 58 | 58.4 | 0.99× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $33.10 50.93 gems | 5.1% | 65 | 73.0 | 0.89× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $25.29 38.91 gems | 2.4% | 43 | 43.8 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $18.72 28.8 gems | 1.7% | 39 | 43.8 | 0.89× | | [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 22.0% | $9.48 14.59 gems | 6.5% | 307 | 321.0 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 22.0% | $3.87 5.95 gems | 2.6% | 323 | 321.0 | 1.01× | | [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) | 40.0% | $1.83 2.81 gems | 2.3% | 612 | 583.6 | 1.05× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) [Vaniooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Vaniooo) $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-11 07:31 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-10 04:13 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-10 00:56 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-09 03:55 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-08 17:34 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-07 03:46 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-04 20:49 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1,597 2,457 gems 44.55x 2026-11-04 20:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=nothing-but-coal) [P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1.83 2.81 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1.83 2.81 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1.83 2.81 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1.83 2.81 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $3.87 5.95 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) [Spectre](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Spectre) $35.85 55.15 gems $3.87 5.95 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $9.48 14.59 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $9.48 14.59 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $1.83 2.81 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) Hidden $35.85 55.15 gems $18.72 28.8 gems 0.52x 2026-11-11 17:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $35.85 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% extraordinary 5.0% industrial 6.0% mil spec 22.0% restricted 22.0% #87c7ff 40.0% best hit $1,597 (44.55x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt