--- title: "Nuclear War case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nuclear War ($37.50) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 98.47% over 361 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war rendered: 2026-11-11T20:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Nuclear War](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Nuclear War A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war?window=all) Price · $37.50 · 57.69 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $33.75 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.47% · 361 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.29% ±31.66 107 openings 7 days · 103.33% ±20.83 247 openings 30 days · 98.47% ±17.23 361 openings since tracking started · 98.47% ±17.23 361 openings 58.0% 91.5% 125.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war?window=24h) | 107 | 90.29% ±31.7 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war?window=7d) | 247 | 103.33% ±20.8 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war) | 361 | 98.47% ±17.2 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/nuclear-war?window=all) | 361 | 98.47% ±17.2 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 385 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $238 367 gems | 35.3% | 17 | 19.2 | 0.88× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $172 265 gems | 25.5% | 23 | 19.2 | 1.19× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $106 164 gems | 15.8% | 24 | 19.2 | 1.25× | | [UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $45.30 69.69 gems | 6.7% | 24 | 19.2 | 1.25× | | [XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $27.41 42.17 gems | 4.1% | 26 | 19.2 | 1.35× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 25.0% | $9.63 14.82 gems | 7.1% | 102 | 96.2 | 1.06× | | [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 25.0% | $6.50 10 gems | 4.8% | 87 | 96.2 | 0.90× | | [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.93 1.43 gems | 0.7% | 82 | 96.3 | 0.85× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=nuclear-war) [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 57.69 gems $6.50 10 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 57.69 gems $6.50 10 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 57.69 gems $9.63 14.82 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 57.69 gems $6.50 10 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 57.69 gems $6.50 10 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $37.50 57.69 gems $9.63 14.82 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 20:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 57.69 gems $6.50 10 gems 0.17x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 57.69 gems $0.93 1.43 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 57.69 gems $9.63 14.82 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) Hidden $37.50 57.69 gems $0.93 1.43 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $37.50 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 35.0% classified 5.0% industrial 30.0% other 5.0% mil spec 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt