--- title: "OG Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "OG Case ($60.79) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 93.19% over 2,043 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [OG Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · OG Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case?window=all) Price · $60.79 · 93.53 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $54.71 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.19% · 2,043 openings, odds method Variance · 29.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 74 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 323 openings · below min 7 days · 95.08% ±25.27 1,786 openings 30 days · 93.19% ±23.62 2,043 openings since tracking started · 93.19% ±23.62 2,043 openings -0.5% 60.3% 121.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case?window=24h) | 323 | 58.16% ±59.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case?window=7d) | 1,786 | 95.08% ±25.3 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case) | 2,043 | 93.19% ±23.6 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/og-case?window=all) | 2,043 | 93.19% ±23.6 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,065 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $5,985 9,208 gems | 21.9% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $2,600 4,000 gems | 19.0% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.85× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $907 1,395 gems | 12.4% | 16 | 15.5 | 1.03× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $649 998 gems | 11.9% | 23 | 20.7 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $370 569 gems | 13.5% | 57 | 41.3 | 1.38× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $155 238 gems | 5.7% | 43 | 41.3 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $85.31 131 gems | 6.2% | 80 | 82.6 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $42.54 65.45 gems | 3.9% | 107 | 103.3 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $17.16 26.4 gems | 2.4% | 131 | 154.9 | 0.85× | | [P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $6.08 9.35 gems | 2.2% | 435 | 413.0 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 57.1% | $0.90 1.38 gems | 0.9% | 1,162 | 1180.1 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $5,985 9,208 gems 98.44x 2026-11-09 22:04 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $5,985 9,208 gems 98.44x 2026-11-06 02:54 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $5,985 9,208 gems 98.44x 2026-11-05 22:47 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $5,985 9,208 gems 98.44x 2026-11-05 13:54 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 42.77x 2026-11-10 23:40 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [arl333.](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/arl333.) $60.79 93.53 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 42.77x 2026-11-08 18:35 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 42.77x 2026-11-07 21:41 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 42.77x 2026-11-07 21:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [FaZe\_ABALOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FaZe_ABALOS) $60.79 93.53 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 42.77x 2026-11-07 13:57 UTC [★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 42.77x 2026-11-05 14:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=og-case) [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $6.08 9.35 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) [Moncler](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Moncler) $60.79 93.53 gems $6.08 9.35 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $6.08 9.35 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $6.08 9.35 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $85.31 131 gems 1.40x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $60.79 93.53 gems $6.08 9.35 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $60.79 93.53 gems $0.90 1.38 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $60.79 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.2% covert 12.2% rare 1.0% classified 29.5% mil spec 57.1% best hit $5,985 (98.44x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt