--- title: "Oil case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Oil ($4.89) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.93% from 6 items with odds, observed 89.21% over 3,251 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Oil](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Oil A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil?window=all) Price · $4.89 · 7.52 gems Advertised RTP · 89.93% · EV $4.40 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.21% · 3,251 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.85% ±10.48 296 openings 7 days · 88.28% ±3.50 2,651 openings 30 days · 89.21% ±3.16 3,251 openings since tracking started · 89.21% ±3.16 3,251 openings 71.5% 82.7% 94.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil?window=24h) | 296 | 82.85% ±10.5 | −1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil?window=7d) | 2,651 | 88.28% ±3.50 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil) | 3,251 | 89.21% ±3.16 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/oil?window=all) | 3,251 | 89.21% ±3.16 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,287 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.96 19.94 gems | 29.5% | 313 | 328.7 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.11 14.01 gems | 20.7% | 336 | 328.7 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.12 12.49 gems | 18.5% | 330 | 328.7 | 1.00× | | [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $6.60 10.15 gems | 15.0% | 310 | 328.7 | 0.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.91 9.09 gems | 13.4% | 353 | 328.7 | 1.07× | | [Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-factory-new) | 50.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 2.9% | 1,645 | 1643.5 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=oil) [AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) Hidden $4.89 7.52 gems $9.11 14.01 gems 1.86x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [AWP | Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) [:f](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%3Af) $4.89 7.52 gems $12.96 19.94 gems 2.65x 2026-11-11 18:17 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $4.89 7.52 gems $5.91 9.09 gems 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-factory-new) Hidden $4.89 7.52 gems $0.25 0.39 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $4.89 7.52 gems $5.91 9.09 gems 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) [IceHolyz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/IceHolyz) $4.89 7.52 gems $8.12 12.49 gems 1.66x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $4.89 7.52 gems $5.91 9.09 gems 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $4.89 7.52 gems $5.91 9.09 gems 1.21x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-factory-new) Hidden $4.89 7.52 gems $0.25 0.39 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC [FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) [IceHolyz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/IceHolyz) $4.89 7.52 gems $6.60 10.15 gems 1.35x 2026-11-11 18:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.89 | 89.93% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #4b69ff 10.0% restricted 10.0% industrial 10.0% mil spec 10.0% classified 10.0% Consumer Grade 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.93 on average: an expected loss of $10.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt