--- title: "One in Ten case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "One in Ten ($52.55) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 85.03% over 673 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten rendered: 2026-11-11T19:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [One in Ten](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · One in Ten A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten?window=all) Price · $52.55 · 80.85 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $47.29 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.03% · 673 openings, odds method Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 112 openings · below min 7 days · 83.75% ±19.35 577 openings 30 days · 85.03% ±17.92 673 openings since tracking started · 85.03% ±17.92 673 openings 24.0% 68.8% 113.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten?window=24h) | 112 | 68.76% ±43.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten?window=7d) | 577 | 83.75% ±19.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten) | 673 | 85.03% ±17.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-in-ten?window=all) | 673 | 85.03% ±17.9 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 685 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $737 1,134 gems | 31.2% | 18 | 13.7 | 1.31× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $482 741 gems | 20.4% | 8 | 13.7 | 0.58× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $262 403 gems | 11.1% | 9 | 13.7 | 0.66× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $135 208 gems | 5.7% | 13 | 13.7 | 0.95× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $84.77 130 gems | 3.6% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $48.30 74.31 gems | 10.2% | 65 | 68.5 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $24.54 37.76 gems | 10.4% | 126 | 137.0 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 20.0% | $10.60 16.3 gems | 4.5% | 128 | 137.0 | 0.93× | | [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $4.32 6.65 gems | 1.8% | 149 | 137.0 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $2.80 4.3 gems | 1.2% | 157 | 137.0 | 1.15× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-10 09:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [Armands Miesnieks](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Armands%20Miesnieks) $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-09 18:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-09 18:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-09 18:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-08 00:02 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-07 23:29 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-07 21:46 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [conq](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/conq) $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-07 21:42 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $737 1,134 gems 14.03x 2026-11-06 11:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=one-in-ten) [AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $24.54 37.76 gems 0.47x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [AWP | Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $2.80 4.3 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $48.30 74.31 gems 0.92x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $10.60 16.3 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $10.60 16.3 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) [thegamblingbandits.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/thegamblingbandits.com) $52.55 80.85 gems $24.54 37.76 gems 0.47x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $24.54 37.76 gems 0.47x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $262 403 gems 4.98x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $10.60 16.3 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) Hidden $52.55 80.85 gems $10.60 16.3 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $52.55 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.0% sunny 2.0% Covert 2.0% classified 10.0% #d32ce6 20.0% Legendary 20.0% Classified 20.0% violet 20.0% best hit $737 (14.03x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt