--- title: "One case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "One ($39.57) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 18 items with odds, observed 87.46% over 3,959 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official rendered: 2026-11-11T17:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [One](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · One A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official?window=all) Price · $39.57 · 60.88 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $35.61 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.46% · 3,959 openings, odds method Variance · 27.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 257 openings · below min 7 days · 81.70% ±17.96 3,307 openings 30 days · 87.46% ±16.42 3,959 openings since tracking started · 87.46% ±16.42 3,959 openings 1.5% 66.8% 132.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official?window=24h) | 257 | 66.75% ±64.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official?window=7d) | 3,307 | 81.70% ±18.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official) | 3,959 | 87.46% ±16.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/one-official?window=all) | 3,959 | 87.46% ±16.4 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,025 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,291 9,679 gems | 8.8% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.49× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,838 5,904 gems | 5.4% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,613 2,482 gems | 4.5% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $1,202 1,849 gems | 10.1% | 9 | 12.1 | 0.75× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $959 1,476 gems | 13.5% | 19 | 20.1 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $627 964 gems | 8.8% | 23 | 20.1 | 1.14× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $577 888 gems | 8.1% | 22 | 20.1 | 1.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $380 584 gems | 5.3% | 14 | 20.1 | 0.70× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $295 455 gems | 4.1% | 29 | 20.1 | 1.44× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $228 350 gems | 6.4% | 42 | 40.2 | 1.04× | | [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $163 250 gems | 4.6% | 48 | 40.2 | 1.19× | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $150 232 gems | 4.2% | 44 | 40.2 | 1.09× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $135 208 gems | 3.8% | 37 | 40.2 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $55.25 85 gems | 1.6% | 42 | 40.2 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $52.13 80.2 gems | 2.9% | 63 | 80.5 | 0.78× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 30.0% | $5.08 7.81 gems | 4.3% | 1,177 | 1207.5 | 0.97× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $4.18 6.43 gems | 3.5% | 1,268 | 1207.5 | 1.05× | | [G3SG1 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 1,182 | 1207.5 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $6,291 9,679 gems 159.0x 2026-11-10 01:58 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $6,291 9,679 gems 159.0x 2026-11-05 20:25 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) [POTATO](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/POTATO) $39.57 60.88 gems $6,291 9,679 gems 159.0x 2026-11-05 18:44 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) [Sponge](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sponge) $39.57 60.88 gems $1,613 2,482 gems 40.76x 2026-11-08 02:13 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $1,613 2,482 gems 40.76x 2026-11-04 09:25 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $1,613 2,482 gems 40.76x 2026-11-03 18:44 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $1,202 1,849 gems 30.37x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $1,202 1,849 gems 30.37x 2026-11-10 01:56 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $1,202 1,849 gems 30.37x 2026-11-05 18:51 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $1,202 1,849 gems 30.37x 2026-11-05 16:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=one-official) [P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $5.08 7.81 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $295 455 gems 7.47x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $4.18 6.43 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $39.57 60.88 gems $4.18 6.43 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-minimal-wear) [Ceontea](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ceontea) $39.57 60.88 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $55.25 85 gems 1.40x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $4.18 6.43 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.57 60.88 gems $0.01 0.02 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) [zyro](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/zyro) $39.57 60.88 gems $5.08 7.81 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $39.57 | 89.99% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 33.6% classified 31.6% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 2.5% Ancient 1.0% red 1.0% Consumer Grade 30.0% best hit $6,291 (159.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt