--- title: "Operation Breakout Weapon Case on Clash.gg: odds & RTP" description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case rendered: 2026-11-11T14:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Operation Breakout Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Operation Breakout Weapon Case A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case?window=all) Price · $3.89 · 5.98 gems Advertised RTP · 89.90% · EV $3.49 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.86% · 21.4K openings, odds method Variance · 266.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 833 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.13% ±41.25 6,006 openings 7 days · 82.85% ±23.14 19.1K openings 30 days · 88.86% ±21.83 21.4K openings since tracking started · 88.86% ±21.83 21.4K openings 47.0% 89.0% 131.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case?window=24h) | 6,006 | 89.13% ±41.2 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case?window=7d) | 19.1K | 82.85% ±23.1 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case) | 21.4K | 88.86% ±21.8 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-breakout-weapon-case?window=all) | 21.4K | 88.86% ±21.8 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,920 4,492 gems | 16.7% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,101 3,233 gems | 12.0% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,176 1,810 gems | 6.7% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,161 1,787 gems | 6.6% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.38× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $935 1,438 gems | 5.4% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.15× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $898 1,382 gems | 5.1% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.61× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $833 1,282 gems | 4.8% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.15× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $653 1,004 gems | 3.7% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $602 927 gems | 3.4% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $588 905 gems | 3.4% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $566 870 gems | 3.2% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.15× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $561 863 gems | 3.2% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $559 860 gems | 3.2% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $24.58 37.81 gems | 2.3% | 79 | 69.7 | 1.13× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $18.90 29.07 gems | 1.7% | 59 | 69.7 | 0.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $6.38 9.82 gems | 1.9% | 220 | 232.0 | 0.95× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $5.34 8.22 gems | 1.6% | 204 | 232.0 | 0.88× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $4.19 6.45 gems | 1.3% | 226 | 232.0 | 0.97× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 16.0% | $1.42 2.18 gems | 6.5% | 3,501 | 3479.4 | 1.01× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.03 1.58 gems | 1.2% | 863 | 869.6 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.85 1.3 gems | 1.0% | 866 | 869.6 | 1.00× | | [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.83 1.28 gems | 1.0% | 905 | 869.6 | 1.04× | | [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.81 1.24 gems | 0.9% | 802 | 869.6 | 0.92× | | [P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.29 0.45 gems | 1.3% | 3,387 | 3479.4 | 0.97× | | [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 0.7% | 3,581 | 3479.4 | 1.03× | | [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.6% | 3,562 | 3479.4 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.5% | 3,455 | 3479.8 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [eSk;](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/eSk%3B) $3.89 5.98 gems $2,920 4,492 gems 751.2x 2026-11-09 02:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $2,920 4,492 gems 751.2x 2026-11-08 22:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $2,920 4,492 gems 751.2x 2026-11-08 01:25 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $2,920 4,492 gems 751.2x 2026-11-04 00:59 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $2,101 3,233 gems 540.6x 2026-11-10 19:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $2,101 3,233 gems 540.6x 2026-11-10 19:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $2,101 3,233 gems 540.6x 2026-11-04 02:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [eSk;](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/eSk%3B) $3.89 5.98 gems $1,176 1,810 gems 302.6x 2026-11-08 00:57 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $1,176 1,810 gems 302.6x 2026-11-06 09:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $1,176 1,810 gems 302.6x 2026-11-04 02:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=operation-breakout-weapon-case) [P2000 | Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $0.29 0.45 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $1.42 2.18 gems 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) [ByRcHyZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ByRcHyZ) $3.89 5.98 gems $1.42 2.18 gems 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC [Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $1.03 1.58 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $0.29 0.45 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.98 gems $0.29 0.45 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $3.89 | 89.90% | 27 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed knifes 0.0% covert 0.8% gold 0.1% covert knife 0.0% classified 3.2% mil spec 32.0% restricted 8.0% Mythical 8.0% Rare 32.0% Mil Spec 16.0% best hit $2,920 (751.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.90 on average: an expected loss of $10.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt