---
title: "Operation Wildfire Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Operation Wildfire Case ($3.43) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.87% from 29 items with odds, observed 81.15% over 7,584 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Operation Wildfire Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Operation Wildfire Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case?window=all)

Price · $3.43 · 5.27 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.87% · EV $3.08 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.15% · 7,584 openings, odds method

Variance · 40.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 61 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.49% ±39.44 999 openings

7 days · 82.90% ±15.55 6,425 openings

30 days · 81.15% ±14.31 7,584 openings

since tracking started · 81.15% ±14.31 7,584 openings

39.5% 79.5% 119.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case?window=24h) | 999 | 79.49% ±39.4 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case?window=7d) | 6,425 | 82.90% ±15.6 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case) | 7,584 | 81.15% ±14.3 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operation-wildfire-case?window=all) | 7,584 | 81.15% ±14.3 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,676 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $976 1,501 gems | 6.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $474 730 gems | 3.1% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $245 377 gems | 25.4% | 18 | 24.6 | 0.73× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $238 365 gems | 1.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $190 292 gems | 1.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $176 271 gems | 1.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $169 260 gems | 1.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $118 182 gems | 0.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $113 173 gems | 0.7% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.95× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $112 172 gems | 0.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $105 161 gems | 0.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bowie Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife) | 1 in 5,000 | $99.13 153 gems | 0.6% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $97.45 150 gems | 0.6% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $64.75 99.61 gems | 0.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $17.93 27.59 gems | 6.2% | 82 | 81.8 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $17.54 26.99 gems | 6.1% | 75 | 81.8 | 0.92× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $16.63 25.59 gems | 5.8% | 77 | 81.8 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $5.39 8.29 gems | 0.6% | 26 | 24.6 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $3.37 5.18 gems | 3.5% | 235 | 245.3 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $2.68 4.13 gems | 2.8% | 241 | 245.3 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 13.3% | $2.33 3.58 gems | 10.1% | 1,044 | 1022.4 | 1.02× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $2.24 3.44 gems | 2.3% | 251 | 245.3 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $2.16 3.33 gems | 2.2% | 250 | 245.3 | 1.02× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $2.16 3.32 gems | 2.2% | 253 | 245.3 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.76 1.17 gems | 3.3% | 1,069 | 1022.4 | 1.05× |
| [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.74 1.14 gems | 3.2% | 998 | 1022.4 | 0.98× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.73 1.13 gems | 3.2% | 973 | 1022.4 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.53 0.82 gems | 2.3% | 1,000 | 1022.4 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 13.3% | $0.41 0.63 gems | 1.8% | 1,066 | 1022.6 | 1.04× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $3.43 5.27 gems $474 730 gems 138.5x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $474 730 gems 138.5x 2026-11-10 19:15 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $474 730 gems 138.5x 2026-11-10 12:31 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [markmosab](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/markmosab) $3.43 5.27 gems $474 730 gems 138.5x 2026-11-05 22:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $245 377 gems 71.45x 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $245 377 gems 71.45x 2026-11-08 14:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $245 377 gems 71.45x 2026-11-08 02:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $245 377 gems 71.45x 2026-11-07 18:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $245 377 gems 71.45x 2026-11-07 18:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $245 377 gems 71.45x 2026-11-07 18:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=operation-wildfire-case)

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $0.41 0.63 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[FAMAS | Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $2.68 4.13 gems 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[MP7 | Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) [ByRcHyZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ByRcHyZ) $3.43 5.27 gems $2.16 3.33 gems 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[Tec-9 | Jambiya (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $0.74 1.14 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MP7 | Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $2.16 3.33 gems 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $3.43 5.27 gems $0.73 1.13 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $0.73 1.13 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $0.41 0.63 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $3.43 5.27 gems $0.53 0.82 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-necropos-factory-new) Hidden $3.43 5.27 gems $0.53 0.82 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $3.43 | 89.87% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% Covert 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% knifes 0.0% covert knife 0.0% classified 3.2% restricted 16.0% mil spec 40.0% Mil Spec Grade 13.3% #4b69ff 26.6% best hit $474 (138.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.87 on average: an expected loss of $10.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt