--- title: "Operationally Challenged case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Operationally Challenged ($4.19) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.88% from 12 items with odds, observed 84.81% over 4,213 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged rendered: 2026-11-11T21:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Operationally Challenged](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Operationally Challenged A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged?window=all) Price · $4.19 · 6.45 gems Advertised RTP · 89.88% · EV $3.77 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.81% · 4,213 openings, odds method Variance · 8.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.16% ±33.95 295 openings 7 days · 86.18% ±9.86 3,498 openings 30 days · 84.81% ±8.98 4,213 openings since tracking started · 84.81% ±8.98 4,213 openings 55.5% 90.3% 125.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged?window=24h) | 295 | 90.16% ±33.9 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged?window=7d) | 3,498 | 86.18% ±9.86 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged) | 4,213 | 84.81% ±8.98 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/operationally-challenged?window=all) | 4,213 | 84.81% ±8.98 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,332 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $463 712 gems | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $262 402 gems | 2.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $218 335 gems | 8.7% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $70.77 109 gems | 4.7% | 8 | 10.8 | 0.74× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $48.05 73.93 gems | 7.0% | 26 | 23.8 | 1.09× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $27.63 42.5 gems | 11.0% | 65 | 65.0 | 1.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $15.96 24.55 gems | 6.4% | 49 | 65.0 | 0.75× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9.31 14.33 gems | 9.9% | 157 | 173.3 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.72 8.8 gems | 12.1% | 380 | 346.6 | 1.10× | | [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 25.0% | $3.28 5.05 gems | 21.8% | 1,079 | 1083.0 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $1.61 2.47 gems | 10.7% | 1,117 | 1083.0 | 1.03× | | [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 34.0% | $0.42 0.65 gems | 3.8% | 1,444 | 1472.9 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $262 402 gems 62.38x 2026-11-05 13:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $262 402 gems 62.38x 2026-11-02 22:30 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $218 335 gems 51.90x 2026-11-11 07:31 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $218 335 gems 51.90x 2026-11-09 21:01 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $218 335 gems 51.90x 2026-11-09 08:29 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $218 335 gems 51.90x 2026-11-07 13:50 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $218 335 gems 51.90x 2026-11-07 13:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=operationally-challenged) [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $1.61 2.47 gems 0.38x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $3.28 5.05 gems 0.78x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $1.61 2.47 gems 0.38x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) [jussin pinkki](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/jussin%20pinkki) $4.19 6.45 gems $3.28 5.05 gems 0.78x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $3.28 5.05 gems 0.78x 2026-11-11 20:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $1.61 2.47 gems 0.38x 2026-11-11 20:21 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) Hidden $4.19 6.45 gems $3.28 5.05 gems 0.78x 2026-11-11 20:21 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) [jussin pinkki](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/jussin%20pinkki) $4.19 6.45 gems $15.96 24.55 gems 3.81x 2026-11-11 20:21 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) [n\*\*\*o](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/n***o-11909062) $4.19 6.45 gems $3.28 5.05 gems 0.78x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-minimal-wear) [n\*\*\*o](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/n***o-11909062) $4.19 6.45 gems $1.61 2.47 gems 0.38x 2026-11-11 18:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $4.19 | 89.88% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% classified 5.5% restricted 33.0% violet 25.0% mil spec 34.0% best hit $262 (62.38x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.88 on average: an expected loss of $10.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt