--- title: "Osmosis case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Osmosis ($74.95) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.76% over 263 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis rendered: 2026-11-12T01:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Osmosis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Osmosis A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis?window=all) Price · $74.95 · 115 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $67.45 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.76% · 263 openings, odds method Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 33 openings · below min 7 days · 78.91% ±26.94 190 openings 30 days · 89.76% ±22.90 263 openings since tracking started · 89.76% ±22.90 263 openings -0.5% 63.8% 128.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis?window=24h) | 33 | 62.62% ±64.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis?window=7d) | 190 | 78.91% ±26.9 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis) | 263 | 89.76% ±22.9 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/osmosis?window=all) | 263 | 89.76% ±22.9 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 267 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $592 910 gems | 43.8% | 15 | 13.3 | 1.12× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $319 490 gems | 23.6% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| Team Liquid (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 20 | $187 288 gems | 13.9% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.90× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $58.83 90.5 gems | 4.4% | 9 | 13.3 | 0.67× | | [Sticker \| waterfaLLZ (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-waterfallz-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 20 | $41.09 63.21 gems | 3.0% | 11 | 13.3 | 0.82× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 15.0% | $25.67 39.49 gems | 5.7% | 44 | 40.0 | 1.10× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $15.98 24.59 gems | 3.6% | 42 | 40.0 | 1.05× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $6.81 10.47 gems | 1.5% | 43 | 40.0 | 1.07× | | [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.79 2.76 gems | 0.4% | 39 | 40.0 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.40 0.62 gems | 0.1% | 40 | 40.1 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-07 23:38 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [Sieras](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sieras) $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-07 14:10 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-06 13:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-05 02:21 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-05 01:17 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [Reaser](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Reaser) $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-04 20:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) [Smiling Grizzly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Smiling%20Grizzly) $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-04 15:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=osmosis) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $25.67 39.49 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 22:39 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $6.81 10.47 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:39 UTC [MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) [󠀡󠀡](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%F3%A0%80%A1%F3%A0%80%A1) $74.95 115 gems $1.79 2.76 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 22:39 UTC [Sticker | waterfaLLZ (Gold) | London 2018 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-waterfallz-gold-london-2018) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $41.09 63.21 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $592 910 gems 7.89x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $25.67 39.49 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [Sticker | waterfaLLZ (Gold) | London 2018 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-waterfallz-gold-london-2018) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $41.09 63.21 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $0.40 0.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $74.95 115 gems $0.40 0.62 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $74.95 115 gems $25.67 39.49 gems 0.34x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $74.95 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% Legendary 20.0% classified 5.0% other 5.0% restricted 15.0% mil spec 45.0% best hit $592 (7.89x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt