--- title: "Pandoras Box case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pandoras Box ($23.16) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 75.57% over 621 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Pandoras Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Pandoras Box A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box?window=all) Price · $23.16 · 35.63 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $20.84 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.57% · 621 openings, odds method Variance · 27.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 33 openings · below min 7 days · 76.13% ±44.38 539 openings 30 days · 75.57% ±41.34 621 openings since tracking started · 75.57% ±41.34 621 openings -0.5% 133.8% 268.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box?window=24h) | 33 | 87.81% ±179.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box?window=7d) | 539 | 76.13% ±44.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box) | 621 | 75.57% ±41.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pandoras-box?window=all) | 621 | 75.57% ±41.3 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 621 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,807 5,857 gems | 18.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $68.39 105 gems | 32.5% | 78 | 61.5 | 1.27× | | [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 10.0% | $40.38 62.12 gems | 19.4% | 50 | 62.1 | 0.81× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 20.0% | $25.70 39.54 gems | 24.7% | 111 | 124.2 | 0.89× | | [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) | 20.0% | $3.50 5.39 gems | 3.4% | 116 | 124.2 | 0.93× | | [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.22 1.88 gems | 1.2% | 132 | 124.2 | 1.06× | | [AUG \| Plague (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.70 1.08 gems | 0.7% | 134 | 124.2 | 1.08× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=pandoras-box) [Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) Hidden $23.16 35.63 gems $3.50 5.39 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 05:52 UTC [AUG | Plague (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-factory-new) Hidden $23.16 35.63 gems $0.70 1.08 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 05:52 UTC [AUG | Plague (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-factory-new) Hidden $23.16 35.63 gems $0.70 1.08 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 05:52 UTC [Negev | Phoenix Stencil (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-factory-new) Hidden $23.16 35.63 gems $3.50 5.39 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 05:52 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $23.16 35.63 gems $68.39 105 gems 2.95x 2026-11-11 05:52 UTC [USP-S | Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) Hidden $23.16 35.63 gems $40.38 62.12 gems 1.74x 2026-11-11 05:52 UTC [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) Hidden $23.16 35.63 gems $1.22 1.88 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:03 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $23.16 35.63 gems $68.39 105 gems 2.95x 2026-11-10 23:03 UTC [G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) [ToneyFox](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ToneyFox) $23.16 35.63 gems $1.22 1.88 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 23:03 UTC [Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) Hidden $23.16 35.63 gems $25.70 39.54 gems 1.11x 2026-11-10 22:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $23.16 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% mil spec 9.9% classified 10.0% restricted 20.0% #4b69ff 20.0% Mythical 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt