--- title: "Papa X Cupcake case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Papa X Cupcake ($16.33) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 1391.61% over 4 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake rendered: 2026-11-12T16:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Papa X Cupcake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Papa X Cupcake A case on Clash.gg, first seen 12 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake?window=all) Price · $16.33 · 25.13 gems Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 1391.61% · 4 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min 28.0% 1391.8% 2755.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake?window=24h) | 4 | 1391.61% ±1363.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake?window=7d) | 4 | 1391.61% ±1363.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake) | 4 | 1391.61% ±1363.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/papa-x-cupcake?window=all) | 4 | 1391.61% ±1363.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Clash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $16.33 25.13 gems $535 824 gems 32.77x 2026-11-12 04:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=papa-x-cupcake) [★ Bayonet | Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $16.33 25.13 gems $137 210 gems 8.37x 2026-11-12 04:24 UTC [AWP | Crakow! (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-factory-new) Hidden $16.33 25.13 gems $237 365 gems 14.52x 2026-11-12 04:24 UTC [Sticker | FaZe Clan | Paris 2023 sticker · 7](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-paris-2023) Hidden $16.33 25.13 gems \<$0.01 0.01 gems 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:24 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $16.33 25.13 gems $535 824 gems 32.77x 2026-11-12 04:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $535 (32.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 1391.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $1,391.61 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt