--- title: "Paper Hands case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Paper Hands ($94.08) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 93.04% over 160 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Paper Hands](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Paper Hands A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands?window=all) Price · $94.08 · 145 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $84.67 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.04% · 160 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.92% ±25.21 105 openings 7 days · 94.36% ±20.88 153 openings 30 days · 93.04% ±20.42 160 openings since tracking started · 93.04% ±20.42 160 openings 66.0% 92.0% 118.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands?window=24h) | 105 | 91.92% ±25.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands?window=7d) | 153 | 94.36% ±20.9 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands) | 160 | 93.04% ±20.4 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paper-hands?window=all) | 160 | 93.04% ±20.4 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 160 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $660 1,015 gems | 19.5% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $300 462 gems | 26.6% | 16 | 12.0 | 1.33× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-factory-new) | 10.0% | $160 246 gems | 18.9% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× | | [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 10.0% | $122 188 gems | 14.4% | 11 | 16.0 | 0.69× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 10.0% | $66.30 102 gems | 7.8% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $51.77 79.64 gems | 6.1% | 19 | 16.0 | 1.19× | | [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) | 10.0% | $33.42 51.42 gems | 3.9% | 14 | 16.0 | 0.88× | | [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 10.0% | $14.62 22.49 gems | 1.7% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $6.72 10.34 gems | 0.8% | 19 | 16.0 | 1.19× | | [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.81 1.25 gems | 0.2% | 32 | 32.0 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $660 1,015 gems 7.01x 2026-11-11 02:41 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $660 1,015 gems 7.01x 2026-11-11 02:38 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) [Yikers \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Yikers%20**********.com-2125174) $94.08 145 gems $660 1,015 gems 7.01x 2026-11-10 14:33 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $660 1,015 gems 7.01x 2026-11-06 02:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=paper-hands) [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $6.72 10.34 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC [P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $0.81 1.25 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC [MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) [ncfoodie code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ncfoodie%20code%20DGN) $94.08 145 gems $33.42 51.42 gems 0.36x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC [PP-Bizon | High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $6.72 10.34 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC [SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $122 188 gems 1.30x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC [MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) [ncfoodie code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ncfoodie%20code%20DGN) $94.08 145 gems $14.62 22.49 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC [P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $0.81 1.25 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC [AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $51.77 79.64 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC [P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) [ncfoodie code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ncfoodie%20code%20DGN) $94.08 145 gems $0.81 1.25 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC [AWP | LongDog (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-factory-new) Hidden $94.08 145 gems $300 462 gems 3.19x 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $94.08 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.5% red 7.5% #eb4b4b 10.0% Classified 10.0% Legendary 10.0% rare 10.0% classified 20.0% #8847ff 20.0% best hit $660 (7.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt