--- title: "Paradox Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Paradox Case ($72.46) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 72.26% over 548 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case rendered: 2026-11-11T16:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Paradox Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Paradox Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case?window=all) Price · $72.46 · 111 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $65.21 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 72.26% · 548 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70 openings · below min 7 days · 77.70% ±22.82 449 openings 30 days · 72.26% ±20.66 548 openings since tracking started · 72.26% ±20.66 548 openings -0.5% 56.0% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case?window=24h) | 70 | 54.05% ±57.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case?window=7d) | 449 | 77.70% ±22.8 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case) | 548 | 72.26% ±20.7 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/paradox-case?window=all) | 548 | 72.26% ±20.7 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 548 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,533 2,359 gems | 23.5% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $631 970 gems | 14.5% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $403 620 gems | 15.5% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $193 297 gems | 14.8% | 26 | 27.4 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $81.00 125 gems | 6.2% | 26 | 27.4 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $43.02 66.19 gems | 9.9% | 86 | 82.2 | 1.05× | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $30.54 46.99 gems | 7.0% | 73 | 82.2 | 0.89× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 25.0% | $15.96 24.56 gems | 6.1% | 153 | 137.0 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 30.0% | $5.36 8.25 gems | 2.5% | 163 | 164.4 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [Sponge](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sponge) $72.46 111 gems $1,533 2,359 gems 21.16x 2026-11-08 02:15 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $1,533 2,359 gems 21.16x 2026-11-05 17:45 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $631 970 gems 8.70x 2026-11-10 15:44 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) [MpiXelss](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/MpiXelss) $72.46 111 gems $631 970 gems 8.70x 2026-11-10 09:05 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $631 970 gems 8.70x 2026-11-10 09:01 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $631 970 gems 8.70x 2026-11-10 09:01 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $631 970 gems 8.70x 2026-11-08 22:21 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) [Reaser](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Reaser) $72.46 111 gems $631 970 gems 8.70x 2026-11-04 20:56 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $631 970 gems 8.70x 2026-11-04 20:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=paradox-case) [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $15.96 24.56 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $15.96 24.56 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $15.96 24.56 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $72.46 111 gems $5.36 8.25 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $5.36 8.25 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $15.96 24.56 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $43.02 66.19 gems 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $193 297 gems 2.67x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) Hidden $72.46 111 gems $15.96 24.56 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $72.46 111 gems $30.54 46.99 gems 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $72.46 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.5% legendary 2.5% Ancient 5.0% classified 45.0% Mythical 30.0% best hit $1,533 (21.16x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt