--- title: "Patch Work case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Patch Work ($2.08) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.85% from 12 items with odds, observed 85.74% over 14.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Patch Work](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Patch Work A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work?window=all) Price · $2.08 · 3.2 gems Advertised RTP · 89.85% · EV $1.87 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.74% · 14.9K openings, odds method Variance · 47.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.42% ±37.93 1,259 openings 7 days · 88.32% ±11.86 12.9K openings 30 days · 85.74% ±11.01 14.9K openings since tracking started · 85.74% ±11.01 14.9K openings 47.0% 85.5% 124.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work?window=24h) | 1,259 | 85.42% ±37.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work?window=7d) | 12.9K | 88.32% ±11.9 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work) | 14.9K | 85.74% ±11.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/patch-work?window=all) | 14.9K | 85.74% ±11.0 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Patch \| Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) | 1 in 1,000 | $425 654 gems | 22.8% | 13 | 15.1 | 0.86× | | [Patch \| Elder God patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-elder-god) | 1 in 1,000 | $95.19 146 gems | 5.1% | 17 | 15.1 | 1.13× | | [Patch \| Dead Men patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-dead-men) | 1 in 400 | $58.68 90.27 gems | 7.8% | 31 | 37.7 | 0.82× | | [Patch \| Metal Silver Demon patch · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-silver-demon) | 1 in 133 | $21.54 33.14 gems | 8.6% | 109 | 113.0 | 0.96× | | [Patch \| Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) | 1 in 125 | $15.87 24.42 gems | 6.8% | 102 | 120.5 | 0.85× | | [Patch \| The Boss patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-the-boss) | 1 in 100 | $12.25 18.84 gems | 6.6% | 158 | 150.7 | 1.05× | | [Patch \| Howl patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-howl) | 1 in 100 | $8.88 13.66 gems | 4.8% | 146 | 150.7 | 0.97× | | [Patch \| Cruising Ray patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-cruising-ray) | 1 in 33 | $4.30 6.62 gems | 6.9% | 443 | 452.0 | 0.98× | | [Patch \| Mad Sushi patch · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-mad-sushi) | 1 in 33 | $2.89 4.45 gems | 4.6% | 457 | 452.0 | 1.01× | | [Patch \| Lambda patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-lambda) | 10.0% | $1.49 2.29 gems | 8.0% | 1,509 | 1506.7 | 1.00× | | [Patch \| Chicken Lover patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-chicken-lover) | 30.0% | $0.77 1.18 gems | 12.3% | 4,628 | 4520.1 | 1.02× | | [Patch \| Headcrab Glyph patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-headcrab-glyph) | 50.0% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 5.7% | 7,454 | 7533.6 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-11 03:46 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) [Judia Farlopera](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Judia%20Farlopera) $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-10 02:09 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-09 20:21 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-09 20:13 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-09 17:56 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) [EHERML](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/EHERML) $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-09 05:35 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-08 14:53 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-08 04:59 UTC [Patch | Bayonet Frog patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-bayonet-frog) [o100jaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/o100jaa) $2.08 3.2 gems $425 654 gems 204.4x 2026-11-07 20:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=patch-work) [Patch | Chicken Lover patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-chicken-lover) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $0.77 1.18 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [Patch | The Boss patch · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-the-boss) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $12.25 18.84 gems 5.89x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [Patch | Headcrab Glyph patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-headcrab-glyph) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [Patch | Headcrab Glyph patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-headcrab-glyph) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [Patch | Headcrab Glyph patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-headcrab-glyph) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [Patch | Lambda patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-lambda) [Muhis](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Muhis) $2.08 3.2 gems $1.49 2.29 gems 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [Patch | Headcrab Glyph patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-headcrab-glyph) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Patch | Lambda patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-lambda) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $1.49 2.29 gems 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Patch | Headcrab Glyph patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-headcrab-glyph) [Muhis](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Muhis) $2.08 3.2 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Patch | Headcrab Glyph patch · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-headcrab-glyph) Hidden $2.08 3.2 gems $0.21 0.33 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.08 | 89.85% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed exotic 2.2% remarkable 11.1% Exotic 0.8% Rare 53.0% #4B69FF 3.0% Remarkable 30.0% best hit $425 (204.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.85 on average: an expected loss of $10.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt