--- title: "Payday Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Payday Case ($34.00) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 88.77% over 2,656 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Payday Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Payday Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case?window=all) Price · $34.00 · 52.31 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $30.60 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.77% · 2,656 openings, odds method Variance · 14.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 66.53% ±39.10 363 openings 7 days · 89.79% ±16.47 2,045 openings 30 days · 88.77% ±14.45 2,656 openings since tracking started · 88.77% ±14.45 2,656 openings 27.0% 67.0% 107.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case?window=24h) | 363 | 66.53% ±39.1 | −1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case?window=7d) | 2,045 | 89.79% ±16.5 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case) | 2,656 | 88.77% ±14.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/payday-case?window=all) | 2,656 | 88.77% ±14.5 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,685 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,328 2,043 gems | 21.7% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $656 1,009 gems | 21.4% | 28 | 26.9 | 1.04× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 67 | $428 658 gems | 21.0% | 40 | 40.3 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $263 404 gems | 17.2% | 58 | 53.7 | 1.08× | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $88.40 136 gems | 14.4% | 126 | 134.3 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.80 4.31 gems | 1.8% | 530 | 537.0 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-well-worn) | 20.0% | $1.31 2.02 gems | 0.9% | 540 | 537.0 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.16 1.78 gems | 0.8% | 552 | 537.0 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.86 1.33 gems | 0.8% | 798 | 805.5 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-10 13:22 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) [Nami-Swan!](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Nami-Swan!) $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-10 01:06 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-10 00:31 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-09 12:06 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-08 03:53 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-08 03:38 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-08 03:11 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-05 17:34 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) [jmL](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/jmL) $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-05 13:49 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1,328 2,043 gems 39.06x 2026-11-05 10:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=payday-case) [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $2.80 4.31 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-well-worn) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1.31 2.02 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1.16 1.78 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $0.86 1.33 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $0.86 1.33 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-well-worn) [Bandit enardo.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Bandit%20enardo.gg) $34.00 52.31 gems $1.31 2.02 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $428 658 gems 12.58x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1.16 1.78 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $2.80 4.31 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) Hidden $34.00 52.31 gems $1.16 1.78 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $34.00 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.0% legendary 1.0% Mythical 5.0% classified 40.0% #d32ee6 20.0% Legendary 30.0% best hit $1,328 (39.06x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt