--- title: "Penniless case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Penniless ($4.00) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.89% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.08% over 11.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless rendered: 2026-11-11T15:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Penniless](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Penniless A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless?window=all) Price · $4.00 · 6.16 gems Advertised RTP · 89.89% · EV $3.60 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.08% · 11.9K openings, odds method Variance · 37.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.72% ±39.28 940 openings 7 days · 86.94% ±12.28 9,621 openings 30 days · 89.08% ±11.06 11.9K openings since tracking started · 89.08% ±11.06 11.9K openings 60.0% 99.8% 139.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless?window=24h) | 940 | 99.72% ±39.3 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless?window=7d) | 9,621 | 86.94% ±12.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless) | 11.9K | 89.08% ±11.1 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penniless?window=all) | 11.9K | 89.08% ±11.1 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 625 | $543 836 gems | 24.2% | 19 | 19.6 | 0.97× | | [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scared) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scared) | 1 in 294 | $147 226 gems | 13.9% | 38 | 41.6 | 0.91× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $80.43 124 gems | 11.2% | 58 | 61.2 | 0.95× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $51.27 78.88 gems | 14.2% | 120 | 122.4 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $17.53 26.97 gems | 14.6% | 394 | 367.2 | 1.07× | | [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $8.58 13.2 gems | 11.9% | 636 | 612.1 | 1.04× | | [Nova \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.41 5.24 gems | 9.5% | 1,207 | 1224.1 | 0.99× | | [MAG-7 \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) | 80.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.6% | 9,769 | 9792.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-10 21:57 UTC [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-10 18:41 UTC [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [paris0743](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/paris0743) $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-09 08:33 UTC [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-08 23:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-08 11:56 UTC [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-06 21:35 UTC [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-06 14:20 UTC [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-06 12:47 UTC [★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $543 836 gems 135.7x 2026-11-05 19:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=penniless) [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC [MAG-7 | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $4.00 6.16 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.00 | 89.89% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.2% other 0.3% gold 0.5% mil spec 3.0% Industrial Grade 15.0% Consumer Grade 80.0% best hit $543 (135.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.89 on average: an expected loss of $10.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt