--- title: "Penny Pincher case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Penny Pincher ($1.83) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.20% over 9,390 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher rendered: 2026-11-11T21:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Penny Pincher](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Penny Pincher A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher?window=all) Price · $1.83 · 2.82 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $1.65 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.20% · 9,390 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.51% ±9.33 1,226 openings 7 days · 89.20% ±3.64 8,064 openings 30 days · 89.20% ±3.37 9,390 openings since tracking started · 89.20% ±3.37 9,390 openings 85.0% 95.2% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher?window=24h) | 1,226 | 95.51% ±9.33 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher?window=7d) | 8,064 | 89.20% ±3.64 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher) | 9,390 | 89.20% ±3.37 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/penny-pincher?window=all) | 9,390 | 89.20% ±3.37 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,508 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $23.77 36.57 gems | 14.4% | 90 | 95.1 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Baroque Red (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.17 17.18 gems | 6.8% | 80 | 95.1 | 0.84× | | [Galil AR \| Shattered (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7.23 11.12 gems | 4.4% | 91 | 95.1 | 0.96× | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6.70 10.31 gems | 4.1% | 97 | 95.1 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $4.75 7.3 gems | 17.3% | 604 | 570.5 | 1.06× | | [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.41 6.78 gems | 26.7% | 927 | 950.8 | 0.97× | | [MAG-7 \| Memento (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.12 3.26 gems | 25.7% | 1,935 | 1901.6 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 60.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.7% | 5,684 | 5704.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=penny-pincher) [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.83 2.82 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-memento-factory-new) Hidden $1.83 2.82 gems $2.12 3.26 gems 1.16x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.83 2.82 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) [Lorensas](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Lorensas) $1.83 2.82 gems $4.41 6.78 gems 2.40x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $1.83 2.82 gems $4.41 6.78 gems 2.40x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) [Kernukunn](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kernukunn) $1.83 2.82 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:53 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.83 2.82 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:46 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.83 2.82 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:46 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $1.83 2.82 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:46 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) [kg bomb](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kg%20bomb) $1.83 2.82 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.83 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Legendary 1.0% mil spec 21.0% blue 1.0% restricted 1.0% classified 6.0% industrial 10.0% consumer 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt