--- title: "%15 hit melo case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "%15 hit melo ($5.55) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 74.07% over 92 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo rendered: 2026-11-12T05:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [%15 hit melo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash)%15 hit melo A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo?window=all) Price · $5.55 · 8.54 gems Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 74.07% · 92 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 46 openings · below min 30 days · 92 openings · below min since tracking started · 92 openings · below min 31.5% 93.5% 155.5% **Small sample.** 92 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo?window=24h) | 30 | 93.47% ±61.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo?window=7d) | 46 | 82.76% ±50.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo) | 92 | 74.07% ±34.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/percent15-hit-melo?window=all) | 92 | 74.07% ±34.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Clash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=percent15-hit-melo) [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.55 8.54 gems $0.20 0.3 gems 0.04x 2026-11-12 05:09 UTC [P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $5.55 8.54 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $5.55 8.54 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $5.55 8.54 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:09 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.55 8.54 gems $0.20 0.3 gems 0.04x 2026-11-12 05:09 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) [Smeef](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Smeef) $5.55 8.54 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:09 UTC [P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $5.55 8.54 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:07 UTC [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $5.55 8.54 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.03x 2026-11-12 05:07 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.55 8.54 gems $0.20 0.3 gems 0.04x 2026-11-12 05:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.55 8.54 gems $40.13 61.74 gems 7.23x 2026-11-12 05:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.07 on average: an expected loss of $25.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt