--- title: "Pick Your Poison case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pick Your Poison ($94.20) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 113.11% over 135 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison rendered: 2026-11-11T19:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Pick Your Poison](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Pick Your Poison A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison?window=all) Price · $94.20 · 145 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $84.78 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 113.11% · 135 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 27 openings · below min 7 days · 121.78% ±40.90 106 openings 30 days · 113.11% ±36.25 135 openings since tracking started · 113.11% ±36.25 135 openings 16.5% 98.3% 180.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison?window=24h) | 27 | 98.39% ±81.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison?window=7d) | 106 | 121.78% ±40.9 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison) | 135 | 113.11% ±36.2 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pick-your-poison?window=all) | 135 | 113.11% ±36.2 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 135 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $804 1,237 gems | 37.9% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.30× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $647 996 gems | 30.5% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× | | [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $335 515 gems | 15.8% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $145 224 gems | 6.9% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $58.51 90.02 gems | 2.8% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $26.47 40.73 gems | 3.1% | 16 | 13.5 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.10 17.08 gems | 1.3% | 16 | 13.5 | 1.19× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.72 5.72 gems | 0.4% | 17 | 13.5 | 1.26× | | [Sticker \| Toxic (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic-foil) | 50.0% | $2.11 3.25 gems | 1.2% | 56 | 67.5 | 0.83× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $804 1,237 gems 8.53x 2026-11-10 23:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [honeysmacks](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/honeysmacks) $94.20 145 gems $804 1,237 gems 8.53x 2026-11-09 22:44 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $804 1,237 gems 8.53x 2026-11-09 22:44 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $804 1,237 gems 8.53x 2026-11-09 22:44 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) [UDDSR\_Owner](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/UDDSR_Owner) $94.20 145 gems $804 1,237 gems 8.53x 2026-11-07 23:41 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $804 1,237 gems 8.53x 2026-11-07 08:26 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $804 1,237 gems 8.53x 2026-11-06 02:31 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $647 996 gems 6.87x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $647 996 gems 6.87x 2026-11-10 23:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $647 996 gems 6.87x 2026-11-10 19:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=pick-your-poison) [Sticker | Toxic (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic-foil) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $2.11 3.25 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $26.47 40.73 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $58.51 90.02 gems 0.62x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $145 224 gems 1.54x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $11.10 17.08 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) [HayzeusC](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HayzeusC) $94.20 145 gems $3.72 5.72 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $26.47 40.73 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $58.51 90.02 gems 0.62x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $11.10 17.08 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [Sticker | Toxic (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic-foil) Hidden $94.20 145 gems $2.11 3.25 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $94.20 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 8.0% covert knife 4.0% restricted 14.0% mil spec 14.0% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% Legendary 50.0% best hit $804 (8.53x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt