---
title: "Pinned Down case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Pinned Down ($6.04) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.93% from 44 items with odds, observed 96.78% over 1,572 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Pinned Down](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Pinned Down

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down?window=all)

Price · $6.04 · 9.29 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.93% · EV $5.43 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.78% · 1,572 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.97% ±14.03 236 openings

7 days · 95.16% ±6.11 1,243 openings

30 days · 96.78% ±5.44 1,572 openings

since tracking started · 96.78% ±5.44 1,572 openings

81.5% 96.0% 110.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.93% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.34% – 102.22%, 1,572 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down?window=24h) | 236 | 95.97% ±14.0 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down?window=7d) | 1,243 | 95.16% ±6.11 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down) | 1,572 | 96.78% ±5.44 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pinned-down?window=all) | 1,572 | 96.78% ±5.44 | +2.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,576 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Valeria Phoenix Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/valeria-phoenix-pin) | 1 in 44 | $28.98 44.58 gems | 12.1% | 48 | 35.8 | 1.34× |
| [Howl Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/howl-pin) | 1 in 44 | $28.29 43.52 gems | 11.8% | 41 | 35.8 | 1.15× |
| [Guardian Elite Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-elite-pin) | 1 in 44 | $19.70 30.3 gems | 8.2% | 43 | 35.8 | 1.20× |
| [Dust II Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dust-ii-pin) | 1 in 44 | $16.84 25.91 gems | 7.0% | 33 | 35.8 | 0.92× |
| [Alyx Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/alyx-pin) | 1 in 44 | $16.74 25.75 gems | 7.0% | 35 | 35.8 | 0.98× |
| [Health Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/health-pin) | 1 in 44 | $12.64 19.45 gems | 5.3% | 32 | 35.8 | 0.89× |
| [Cache Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/cache-pin) | 1 in 44 | $8.70 13.39 gems | 3.6% | 48 | 35.8 | 1.34× |
| [Civil Protection Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/civil-protection-pin) | 1 in 44 | $8.24 12.68 gems | 3.4% | 30 | 35.8 | 0.84× |
| [Chroma Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-pin) | 1 in 44 | $7.89 12.14 gems | 3.3% | 43 | 35.8 | 1.20× |
| [Brigadier General Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/brigadier-general-pin) | 1 in 44 | $6.89 10.6 gems | 2.9% | 42 | 35.8 | 1.17× |
| [Mirage Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/mirage-pin) | 1 in 44 | $4.91 7.56 gems | 2.1% | 34 | 35.8 | 0.95× |
| [Office Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/office-pin) | 1 in 44 | $4.54 6.99 gems | 1.9% | 34 | 35.8 | 0.95× |
| [Cobblestone Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/cobblestone-pin) | 1 in 44 | $4.36 6.71 gems | 1.8% | 40 | 35.8 | 1.12× |
| [Aces High Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/aces-high-pin) | 1 in 44 | $3.61 5.56 gems | 1.5% | 33 | 35.8 | 0.92× |
| [Bloodhound Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-pin) | 1 in 44 | $3.39 5.21 gems | 1.4% | 36 | 35.8 | 1.01× |
| [Inferno Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-pin) | 1 in 44 | $3.37 5.18 gems | 1.4% | 30 | 35.8 | 0.84× |
| [Nuke Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/nuke-pin) | 1 in 44 | $3.31 5.09 gems | 1.4% | 34 | 35.8 | 0.95× |
| [Copper Lambda Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/copper-lambda-pin) | 1 in 44 | $3.11 4.78 gems | 1.3% | 37 | 35.8 | 1.03× |
| [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.88 4.43 gems | 1.2% | 42 | 35.8 | 1.17× |
| [Sustenance! Pin pin · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sustenance-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.85 4.38 gems | 1.2% | 30 | 35.8 | 0.84× |
| [Lambda Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/lambda-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.77 4.26 gems | 1.2% | 31 | 35.8 | 0.87× |
| [Black Mesa Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/black-mesa-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.68 4.12 gems | 1.1% | 46 | 35.8 | 1.29× |
| [Victory Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/victory-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.64 4.06 gems | 1.1% | 45 | 35.8 | 1.26× |
| [Hydra Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.63 4.04 gems | 1.1% | 44 | 35.8 | 1.23× |
| [Phoenix Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/phoenix-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.39 3.68 gems | 1.0% | 22 | 35.8 | 0.61× |
| [Headcrab Glyph Pin pin · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/headcrab-glyph-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.25 3.46 gems | 0.9% | 28 | 35.8 | 0.78× |
| [Combine Helmet Pin pin · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/combine-helmet-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.21 3.4 gems | 0.9% | 43 | 35.8 | 1.20× |
| [Overpass Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/overpass-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.12 3.26 gems | 0.9% | 43 | 35.8 | 1.20× |
| [Wildfire Pin pin · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/wildfire-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.10 3.23 gems | 0.9% | 45 | 35.8 | 1.26× |
| [Guardian Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.03 3.13 gems | 0.9% | 34 | 35.8 | 0.95× |
| [Bravo Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/bravo-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.03 3.12 gems | 0.8% | 26 | 35.8 | 0.73× |
| [CMB Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmb-pin) | 1 in 44 | $2.02 3.1 gems | 0.8% | 35 | 35.8 | 0.98× |
| [Train Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/train-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.97 3.03 gems | 0.8% | 34 | 35.8 | 0.95× |
| [Italy Pin pin · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/italy-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.91 2.94 gems | 0.8% | 35 | 35.8 | 0.98× |
| [Welcome to the Clutch Pin pin · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/welcome-to-the-clutch-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.87 2.88 gems | 0.8% | 30 | 35.8 | 0.84× |
| [Militia Pin pin · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/militia-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.78 2.74 gems | 0.7% | 28 | 35.8 | 0.78× |
| [Guardian 2 Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-2-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.76 2.71 gems | 0.7% | 31 | 35.8 | 0.87× |
| [Inferno 2 Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/inferno-2-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.71 2.63 gems | 0.7% | 41 | 35.8 | 1.15× |
| [Easy Peasy Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/easy-peasy-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.63 2.5 gems | 0.7% | 35 | 35.8 | 0.98× |
| [Baggage Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/baggage-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.63 2.5 gems | 0.7% | 33 | 35.8 | 0.92× |
| [Death Sentence Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/death-sentence-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.62 2.49 gems | 0.7% | 38 | 35.8 | 1.06× |
| [City 17 Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/city-17-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.48 2.27 gems | 0.6% | 35 | 35.8 | 0.98× |
| [Canals Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/canals-pin) | 1 in 44 | $1.42 2.18 gems | 0.6% | 22 | 35.8 | 0.61× |
| [Guardian 3 Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/guardian-3-pin) | 1 in 42 | $1.29 1.98 gems | 0.6% | 27 | 37.7 | 0.72× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=pinned-down)

[Headcrab Glyph Pin pin · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/headcrab-glyph-pin) Hidden $6.04 9.29 gems $2.25 3.46 gems 0.37x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Valeria Phoenix Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/valeria-phoenix-pin) Hidden $6.04 9.29 gems $28.98 44.58 gems 4.80x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Black Mesa Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/black-mesa-pin) Hidden $6.04 9.29 gems $2.68 4.12 gems 0.44x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Nuke Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/nuke-pin) Hidden $6.04 9.29 gems $3.31 5.09 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Health Pin pin · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/health-pin) Hidden $6.04 9.29 gems $12.64 19.45 gems 2.09x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) [I be that pretty motherfucker](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/I%20be%20that%20pretty%20motherfucker) $6.04 9.29 gems $2.88 4.43 gems 0.48x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Hydra Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-pin) Hidden $6.04 9.29 gems $2.63 4.04 gems 0.43x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[CMB Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmb-pin) [kick.com/gettingflames](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kick.com%2Fgettingflames) $6.04 9.29 gems $2.02 3.1 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[CMB Pin pin · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmb-pin) Hidden $6.04 9.29 gems $2.02 3.1 gems 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[Lambda Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/lambda-pin) [kick.com/gettingflames](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kick.com%2Fgettingflames) $6.04 9.29 gems $2.77 4.26 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.04 | 89.93% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 18.2% remarkable 18.2% exotic 15.9% high 20.4% pink 2.3% violet 6.8% #4B69FF 2.3% Remarkable 2.3% blue 11.5% High Grade 2.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.93 on average: an expected loss of $10.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt