--- title: "Pirate King case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pirate King ($38.99) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 81.37% over 2,458 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Pirate King](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Pirate King A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king?window=all) Price · $38.99 · 59.99 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $35.09 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.37% · 2,458 openings, odds method Variance · 14.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.34% ±47.44 253 openings 7 days · 77.73% ±17.71 1,815 openings 30 days · 81.37% ±15.22 2,458 openings since tracking started · 81.37% ±15.22 2,458 openings 46.0% 94.3% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king?window=24h) | 253 | 94.34% ±47.4 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king?window=7d) | 1,815 | 77.73% ±17.7 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king) | 2,458 | 81.37% ±15.2 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate-king?window=all) | 2,458 | 81.37% ±15.2 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,514 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 133 | $1,106 1,701 gems | 23.6% | 18 | 18.9 | 0.95× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 133 | $802 1,234 gems | 17.1% | 18 | 18.9 | 0.95× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 133 | $757 1,165 gems | 16.2% | 17 | 18.9 | 0.90× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 133 | $666 1,025 gems | 14.2% | 13 | 18.9 | 0.69× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $339 522 gems | 9.7% | 26 | 25.1 | 1.03× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $220 339 gems | 12.6% | 45 | 50.3 | 0.89× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $21.59 33.21 gems | 3.1% | 116 | 125.7 | 0.92× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.64 13.29 gems | 1.2% | 135 | 125.7 | 1.07× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.15 4.84 gems | 0.9% | 221 | 251.4 | 0.88× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $2.18 3.36 gems | 0.6% | 246 | 251.4 | 0.98× | | [AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.76 1.17 gems | 0.2% | 239 | 251.4 | 0.95× | | [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) | 54.0% | $0.35 0.54 gems | 0.5% | 1,420 | 1357.6 | 1.05× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-11 09:31 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [liamessex26](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/liamessex26) $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-10 14:34 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-10 14:33 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Nami-Swan!](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Nami-Swan!) $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-10 13:47 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-05 23:12 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-05 22:22 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $1,106 1,701 gems 28.36x 2026-11-05 20:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=pirate-king) [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $3.15 4.84 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $8.64 13.29 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $3.15 4.84 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $21.59 33.21 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $0.35 0.54 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) [TwitchBaleszko](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TwitchBaleszko) $38.99 59.99 gems $0.35 0.54 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $2.18 3.36 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $0.35 0.54 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) [( ͡° ᴥ ͡° )](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%E1%B4%A5%20%CD%A1%C2%B0%20%29) $38.99 59.99 gems $0.35 0.54 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $38.99 59.99 gems $0.35 0.54 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $38.99 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 54.0% covert 8.0% covert knife 1.0% Covert 2.0% mil spec 5.0% restricted 10.0% #8847ff 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% best hit $1,106 (28.36x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt