--- title: "Pirate case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pirate ($121.65) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 83.09% over 72 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Pirate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Pirate A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate?window=all) Price · $121.65 · 187 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $109.49 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.09% · 72 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 72 openings · below min 30 days · 72 openings · below min since tracking started · 72 openings · below min 36.5% 70.8% 105.0% **Small sample.** 72 openings and 14.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate?window=24h) | 30 | 70.06% ±33.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate?window=7d) | 72 | 83.09% ±21.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate) | 72 | 83.09% ±21.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/pirate?window=all) | 72 | 83.09% ±21.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 10.0% | $405 623 gems | 37.0% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $196 302 gems | 17.9% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 10.0% | $162 249 gems | 14.8% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 10.0% | $85.00 131 gems | 7.8% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) | 10.0% | $64.29 98.91 gems | 5.9% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.83× | | [MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) | 10.0% | $45.79 70.44 gems | 4.2% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× | | [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 20.0% | $37.63 57.89 gems | 6.9% | 18 | 14.4 | 1.25× | | [AK-47 \| Predator (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-factory-new) | 20.0% | $31.01 47.71 gems | 5.7% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=pirate) [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $64.29 98.91 gems 0.53x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $64.29 98.91 gems 0.53x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $37.63 57.89 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $37.63 57.89 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $37.63 57.89 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $64.29 98.91 gems 0.53x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $37.63 57.89 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $37.63 57.89 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $37.63 57.89 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $122 187 gems $37.63 57.89 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $122 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 10.0% restricted 20.0% covert 30.0% mil spec 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% industrial 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt