--- title: "Prime Rifles case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prime Rifles ($137.30) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 16 items with odds, observed 102.26% over 1,435 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles rendered: 2026-11-11T17:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Prime Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Prime Rifles A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles?window=all) Price · $137.30 · 211 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $123.56 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 102.26% · 1,435 openings, odds method Variance · 12.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.82% ±42.92 264 openings 7 days · 104.70% ±20.52 1,155 openings 30 days · 102.26% ±18.41 1,435 openings since tracking started · 102.26% ±18.41 1,435 openings 41.0% 84.7% 128.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles?window=24h) | 264 | 84.82% ±42.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles?window=7d) | 1,155 | 104.70% ±20.5 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles) | 1,435 | 102.26% ±18.4 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prime-rifles?window=all) | 1,435 | 102.26% ±18.4 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,494 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,231 11,124 gems | 5.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $5,115 7,869 gems | 10.3% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.61× | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,718 4,182 gems | 11.0% | 13 | 7.5 | 1.74× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $2,290 3,524 gems | 12.0% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.82× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,704 2,621 gems | 13.8% | 21 | 14.9 | 1.41× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,232 1,895 gems | 10.0% | 11 | 14.9 | 0.74× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $618 951 gems | 10.0% | 32 | 29.9 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $602 926 gems | 9.7% | 22 | 29.9 | 0.74× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $489 752 gems | 9.9% | 26 | 37.4 | 0.70× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 10.0% | $24.12 37.11 gems | 2.0% | 169 | 149.4 | 1.13× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 10.0% | $17.11 26.32 gems | 1.4% | 154 | 149.4 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $12.85 19.77 gems | 1.0% | 135 | 149.4 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $8.16 12.56 gems | 0.7% | 152 | 149.4 | 1.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 10.0% | $7.18 11.05 gems | 0.6% | 134 | 149.4 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 20.0% | $5.45 8.38 gems | 0.9% | 328 | 298.8 | 1.10× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 20.0% | $5.27 8.1 gems | 0.9% | 281 | 298.8 | 0.94× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $137 211 gems $7,231 11,124 gems 52.66x 2026-11-06 21:19 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $137 211 gems $7,231 11,124 gems 52.66x 2026-11-04 04:46 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $137 211 gems $5,115 7,869 gems 37.26x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $137 211 gems $5,115 7,869 gems 37.26x 2026-11-09 01:39 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) [cracksmoker123](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/cracksmoker123) $137 211 gems $5,115 7,869 gems 37.26x 2026-11-04 23:46 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $137 211 gems $5,115 7,869 gems 37.26x 2026-11-04 23:36 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $137 211 gems $5,115 7,869 gems 37.26x 2026-11-04 18:20 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $137 211 gems $5,115 7,869 gems 37.26x 2026-11-03 00:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $137 211 gems $2,718 4,182 gems 19.80x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $137 211 gems $2,718 4,182 gems 19.80x 2026-11-11 03:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=prime-rifles) [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $137 211 gems $17.11 26.32 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $137 211 gems $1,232 1,895 gems 8.97x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [AK-47 | Head Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) Hidden $137 211 gems $8.16 12.56 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $137 211 gems $17.11 26.32 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 15:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) Hidden $137 211 gems $7.18 11.05 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) Hidden $137 211 gems $489 752 gems 3.56x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) Hidden $137 211 gems $5.27 8.1 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) Hidden $137 211 gems $5.45 8.38 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) Hidden $137 211 gems $5.27 8.1 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) Hidden $137 211 gems $5.27 8.1 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $137 | 90.00% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 42.8% contraband 0.3% classified 14.5% Covert 12.5% violet 10.0% red 20.0% best hit $7,231 (52.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt