--- title: "Prisoner case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Prisoner ($20.84) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 7 items with odds, observed 94.61% over 534 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Prisoner](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Prisoner A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner?window=all) Price · $20.84 · 32.06 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $18.75 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.61% · 534 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 95.15% ±9.30 472 openings 30 days · 94.61% ±8.75 534 openings since tracking started · 94.61% ±8.75 534 openings 10.5% 69.5% 128.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner?window=24h) | 12 | 69.57% ±58.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner?window=7d) | 472 | 95.15% ±9.30 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner) | 534 | 94.61% ±8.75 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prisoner?window=all) | 534 | 94.61% ±8.75 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 537 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $97.49 150 gems | 26.0% | 29 | 26.8 | 1.08× | | [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 10.0% | $35.19 54.14 gems | 18.8% | 54 | 53.7 | 1.01× | | [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) | 15.0% | $28.83 44.36 gems | 23.1% | 91 | 80.5 | 1.13× | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 15.0% | $22.09 33.99 gems | 17.7% | 83 | 80.5 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.19 18.76 gems | 3.3% | 28 | 26.8 | 1.04× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.20 9.54 gems | 1.7% | 29 | 26.8 | 1.08× | | [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) | 45.0% | $4.00 6.15 gems | 9.6% | 223 | 241.7 | 0.92× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=prisoner) [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $20.84 32.06 gems $4.00 6.15 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $20.84 32.06 gems $4.00 6.15 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $20.84 32.06 gems $28.83 44.36 gems 1.38x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $20.84 32.06 gems $28.83 44.36 gems 1.38x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $20.84 32.06 gems $35.19 54.14 gems 1.69x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) [VYCK4](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/VYCK4) $20.84 32.06 gems $4.00 6.15 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $20.84 32.06 gems $4.00 6.15 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $20.84 32.06 gems $4.00 6.15 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $20.84 32.06 gems $4.00 6.15 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $20.84 32.06 gems $28.83 44.36 gems 1.38x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $20.84 | 89.98% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% classified 20.0% violet 30.0% industrial 45.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt