--- title: "Prodigy Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prodigy Case ($122.09) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 96.75% over 564 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Prodigy Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Prodigy Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case?window=all) Price · $122.09 · 188 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $109.88 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.75% · 564 openings, odds method Variance · 33.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97 openings · below min 7 days · 97.21% ±52.66 470 openings 30 days · 96.75% ±48.08 564 openings since tracking started · 96.75% ±48.08 564 openings 11.5% 128.3% 245.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case?window=24h) | 97 | 128.29% ±115.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case?window=7d) | 470 | 97.21% ±52.7 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case) | 564 | 96.75% ±48.1 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/prodigy-case?window=all) | 564 | 96.75% ±48.1 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 564 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $32.5K 50,000 gems | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $26K 40,000 gems | 11.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $3,807 5,857 gems | 6.9% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.66× | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,936 2,979 gems | 3.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $935 1,439 gems | 4.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× | | [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 200 | $918 1,413 gems | 4.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.42× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $632 972 gems | 17.2% | 21 | 16.9 | 1.24× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $420 646 gems | 19.1% | 28 | 28.2 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $336 517 gems | 15.3% | 34 | 28.2 | 1.21× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $247 380 gems | 9.0% | 26 | 22.6 | 1.15× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $128 197 gems | 2.4% | 15 | 11.6 | 1.29× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $16.55 25.46 gems | 0.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) | 35.0% | $6.58 10.12 gems | 2.1% | 207 | 197.4 | 1.05× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 44.0% | $2.90 4.46 gems | 1.2% | 221 | 248.1 | 0.89× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $3,807 5,857 gems 31.18x 2026-11-10 16:38 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $3,807 5,857 gems 31.18x 2026-11-09 02:04 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $3,807 5,857 gems 31.18x 2026-11-03 10:08 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $1,936 2,979 gems 15.86x 2026-11-10 16:38 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $935 1,439 gems 7.66x 2026-11-10 20:14 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $935 1,439 gems 7.66x 2026-11-04 12:44 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $935 1,439 gems 7.66x 2026-11-04 08:13 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $122 188 gems $918 1,413 gems 7.52x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $122 188 gems $918 1,413 gems 7.52x 2026-11-08 16:28 UTC [Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) Hidden $122 188 gems $918 1,413 gems 7.52x 2026-11-07 16:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=prodigy-case) [USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) Hidden $122 188 gems $6.58 10.12 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) Hidden $122 188 gems $6.58 10.12 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) Hidden $122 188 gems $6.58 10.12 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) Hidden $122 188 gems $6.58 10.12 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) Hidden $122 188 gems $420 646 gems 3.44x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) [FarelEnergy skinbet.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/FarelEnergy%20skinbet.gg) $122 188 gems $2.90 4.46 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $247 380 gems 2.02x 2026-11-10 22:00 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $336 517 gems 2.75x 2026-11-10 22:00 UTC [USP-S | Royal Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-battle-scarred) Hidden $122 188 gems $6.58 10.12 gems 0.05x 2026-11-10 22:00 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $122 188 gems $247 380 gems 2.02x 2026-11-10 22:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $122 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% remarkable 0.1% covert 11.3% contraband 0.7% Restricted 0.5% classified 3.0% rare 5.0% restricted 0.5% Industrial Grade 35.0% mil spec 44.0% best hit $3,807 (31.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt