--- title: "Protagonist case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Protagonist ($144.74) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 107.38% over 316 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Protagonist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Protagonist A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist?window=all) Price · $144.74 · 223 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $130.26 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 107.38% · 316 openings, odds method Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 50 openings · below min 7 days · 105.20% ±27.62 298 openings 30 days · 107.38% ±26.82 316 openings since tracking started · 107.38% ±26.82 316 openings 26.5% 94.5% 162.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist?window=24h) | 50 | 94.33% ±67.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist?window=7d) | 298 | 105.20% ±27.6 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist) | 316 | 107.38% ±26.8 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/protagonist?window=all) | 316 | 107.38% ±26.8 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 316 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,535 3,900 gems | 19.5% | 6 | 3.2 | 1.90× | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,300 2,000 gems | 29.9% | 10 | 9.5 | 1.05× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $623 958 gems | 28.7% | 18 | 19.0 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $161 247 gems | 7.4% | 16 | 19.0 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $116 179 gems | 5.4% | 30 | 19.0 | 1.58× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 15.0% | $42.85 65.92 gems | 4.9% | 48 | 47.4 | 1.01× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 15.0% | $18.92 29.11 gems | 2.2% | 47 | 47.4 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $11.65 17.92 gems | 1.3% | 39 | 47.4 | 0.82× | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.52 8.49 gems | 0.6% | 36 | 47.4 | 0.76× | | [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.46 0.71 gems | 0.1% | 66 | 56.9 | 1.16× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $2,535 3,900 gems 17.51x 2026-11-09 17:13 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $2,535 3,900 gems 17.51x 2026-11-09 14:43 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $2,535 3,900 gems 17.51x 2026-11-06 06:18 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $2,535 3,900 gems 17.51x 2026-11-05 16:46 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $2,535 3,900 gems 17.51x 2026-11-05 16:38 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $2,535 3,900 gems 17.51x 2026-11-04 18:52 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $1,300 2,000 gems 8.98x 2026-11-10 19:32 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $1,300 2,000 gems 8.98x 2026-11-10 19:27 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $1,300 2,000 gems 8.98x 2026-11-10 19:24 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $1,300 2,000 gems 8.98x 2026-11-08 01:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=protagonist) [Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $18.92 29.11 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 03:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $145 223 gems $0.46 0.71 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:45 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $116 179 gems 0.80x 2026-11-11 03:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $145 223 gems $0.46 0.71 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $145 223 gems $0.46 0.71 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:45 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [Dingus](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dingus) $145 223 gems $623 958 gems 4.30x 2026-11-11 03:45 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) Hidden $145 223 gems $11.65 17.92 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 03:43 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $145 223 gems $0.46 0.71 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:43 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $116 179 gems 0.80x 2026-11-11 03:43 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $145 223 gems $623 958 gems 4.30x 2026-11-11 03:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $145 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.0% classified 33.0% Ancient 15.0% violet 33.0% best hit $2,535 (17.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt