--- title: "Punishment case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Punishment ($45.54) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 85.10% over 278 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Punishment](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Punishment A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment?window=all) Price · $45.54 · 70.06 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $40.98 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.10% · 278 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85 openings · below min 7 days · 85.34% ±20.27 240 openings 30 days · 85.10% ±18.84 278 openings since tracking started · 85.10% ±18.84 278 openings 31.5% 69.0% 106.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment?window=24h) | 85 | 66.17% ±34.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment?window=7d) | 240 | 85.34% ±20.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment) | 278 | 85.10% ±18.8 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/punishment?window=all) | 278 | 85.10% ±18.8 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $426 656 gems | 31.2% | 7 | 8.3 | 0.84× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $101 155 gems | 17.3% | 16 | 19.5 | 0.82× | | [XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $62.30 95.85 gems | 12.2% | 26 | 22.2 | 1.17× | | [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $56.80 87.38 gems | 11.1% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.03× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $43.60 67.07 gems | 8.5% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $35.55 54.69 gems | 2.6% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $20.79 31.99 gems | 1.5% | 8 | 8.3 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.98 21.5 gems | 1.7% | 18 | 13.9 | 1.29× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 55.0% | $10.40 16 gems | 14.0% | 149 | 152.9 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=punishment) [★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $101 155 gems 2.22x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $43.60 67.07 gems 0.96x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $10.40 16 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [XM1014 | Frost Borre (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-well-worn) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $62.30 95.85 gems 1.37x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [Five-SeveN | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $13.98 21.5 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $35.55 54.69 gems 0.78x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $43.60 67.07 gems 0.96x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $43.60 67.07 gems 0.96x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $10.40 16 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.54 70.06 gems $10.40 16 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $45.54 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 3.0% covert 10.0% mil spec 11.0% restricted 8.0% classified 8.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% blue 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt