---
title: "Rebel Arsenal case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Rebel Arsenal ($29.56) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 68.84% over 549 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Rebel Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Rebel Arsenal

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal?window=all)

Price · $29.56 · 45.48 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $26.60 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 68.84% · 549 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 21 openings · below min

7 days · 69.86% ±28.05 489 openings

30 days · 68.84% ±26.47 549 openings

since tracking started · 68.84% ±26.47 549 openings

-0.5% 85.3% 171.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal?window=24h) | 21 | 35.21% ±135.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal?window=7d) | 489 | 69.86% ±28.1 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal) | 549 | 68.84% ±26.5 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/rebel-arsenal?window=all) | 549 | 68.84% ±26.5 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 555 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $895 1,377 gems | 16.8% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $837 1,287 gems | 15.7% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $168 258 gems | 31.6% | 26 | 27.7 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-factory-new) | 10.0% | $72.79 112 gems | 27.4% | 51 | 55.5 | 0.92× |
| [M249 \| Jungle DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-ddpat-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.17 17.19 gems | 4.2% | 62 | 55.5 | 1.12× |
| [Souvenir G3SG1 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 24.0% | $2.91 4.47 gems | 2.6% | 150 | 133.2 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.12 1.72 gems | 1.1% | 138 | 138.7 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.69 1.06 gems | 0.6% | 125 | 138.8 | 0.90× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $29.56 45.48 gems $895 1,377 gems 30.29x 2026-11-08 22:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) [YuanPi](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/YuanPi) $29.56 45.48 gems $837 1,287 gems 28.30x 2026-11-06 04:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $29.56 45.48 gems $837 1,287 gems 28.30x 2026-11-03 00:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=rebel-arsenal)

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $29.56 45.48 gems $1.12 1.72 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) [SVJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SVJ) $29.56 45.48 gems $1.12 1.72 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) Hidden $29.56 45.48 gems $0.69 1.06 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-factory-new) [SVJ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SVJ) $29.56 45.48 gems $2.91 4.47 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $29.56 45.48 gems $1.12 1.72 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) Hidden $29.56 45.48 gems $0.69 1.06 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $29.56 45.48 gems $1.12 1.72 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[Souvenir G3SG1 | Safari Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-g3sg1-safari-mesh-factory-new) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $29.56 45.48 gems $2.91 4.47 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) Hidden $29.56 45.48 gems $0.69 1.06 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) Hidden $29.56 45.48 gems $0.69 1.06 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $29.56 | 89.99% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.0% mil spec 10.0% consumer 10.0% Rifles 24.0% Rare 25.0% Mil Spec Grade 25.0% best hit $895 (30.29x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt