---
title: "Recoil Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Recoil Case ($2.89) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 41 items with odds, observed 114.08% over 9,079 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Recoil Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Recoil Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case?window=all)

Price · $2.89 · 4.45 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $2.60 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 114.08% · 9,079 openings, odds method

Variance · 344.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 1,111 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 841 openings · below min

7 days · 95.32% ±43.21 7,078 openings

30 days · 114.08% ±38.15 9,079 openings

since tracking started · 114.08% ±38.15 9,079 openings

-0.5% 109.3% 219.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case?window=24h) | 841 | 92.90% ±125.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case?window=7d) | 7,078 | 95.32% ±43.2 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case) | 9,079 | 114.08% ±38.2 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recoil-case?window=all) | 9,079 | 114.08% ±38.2 | +1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,138 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,650 5,615 gems | 14.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,723 2,651 gems | 6.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,551 2,386 gems | 6.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,459 2,244 gems | 5.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,413 2,174 gems | 5.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,247 1,919 gems | 4.8% | 4 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,004 1,544 gems | 3.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $809 1,245 gems | 3.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $626 963 gems | 2.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $625 962 gems | 2.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $578 890 gems | 2.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $545 839 gems | 2.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $527 810 gems | 2.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $518 797 gems | 2.0% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $432 664 gems | 1.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $389 599 gems | 1.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $268 413 gems | 1.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $254 391 gems | 1.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $240 369 gems | 0.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $216 333 gems | 0.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $174 268 gems | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $156 240 gems | 0.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $151 232 gems | 0.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $146 225 gems | 0.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $69.37 107 gems | 8.5% | 38 | 29.2 | 1.30× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $9.02 13.88 gems | 1.1% | 38 | 29.2 | 1.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $9.02 13.88 gems | 3.7% | 100 | 97.4 | 1.03× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $5.93 9.12 gems | 2.4% | 108 | 97.4 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $5.40 8.3 gems | 2.2% | 89 | 97.4 | 0.91× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.16 1.79 gems | 1.4% | 276 | 292.1 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.11 1.7 gems | 1.4% | 286 | 292.1 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.92 1.42 gems | 1.1% | 287 | 292.1 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.91 1.4 gems | 1.1% | 310 | 292.1 | 1.06× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.79 1.22 gems | 1.0% | 276 | 292.1 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.17 0.26 gems | 0.7% | 1,077 | 1043.3 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.15 0.23 gems | 0.7% | 1,053 | 1043.3 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.13 0.2 gems | 0.6% | 1,062 | 1043.3 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.13 0.2 gems | 0.6% | 1,048 | 1043.3 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.5% | 1,017 | 1043.3 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.5% | 1,011 | 1043.3 | 0.97× |
| [Negev \| Drop Me (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.5% | 1,036 | 1045.4 | 0.99× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) [Riley](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Riley) $2.89 4.45 gems $1,723 2,651 gems 595.7x 2026-11-05 15:20 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $1,723 2,651 gems 595.7x 2026-11-03 22:14 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $1,551 2,386 gems 536.2x 2026-11-04 14:38 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $1,459 2,244 gems 504.4x 2026-11-04 14:29 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $1,413 2,174 gems 488.6x 2026-11-11 11:17 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) [Decan](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Decan) $2.89 4.45 gems $1,413 2,174 gems 488.6x 2026-11-03 22:31 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $1,247 1,919 gems 431.1x 2026-11-07 03:23 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $1,247 1,919 gems 431.1x 2026-11-07 02:30 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $1,247 1,919 gems 431.1x 2026-11-05 10:58 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $1,247 1,919 gems 431.1x 2026-11-03 23:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=recoil-case)

[M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[UMP-45 | Roadblock (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) [amarilo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/amarilo) $2.89 4.45 gems $0.15 0.23 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $0.15 0.23 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $1.16 1.79 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) Hidden $2.89 4.45 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) [TTHD](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TTHD) $2.89 4.45 gems $0.15 0.23 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.89 | 89.96% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.2% legendary 0.1% Extraordinary 0.0% red 0.3% covert 0.3% Legendary 1.1% classified 1.1% #d32ee6 1.1% restricted 6.4% Mythical 6.4% violet 3.2% milspec 22.8% Rare 34.3% Mil Spec 11.4% #4b69ff 11.4% best hit $1,723 (595.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt