--- title: "Recovery Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Recovery Case ($27.83) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 104.91% over 215 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case rendered: 2026-11-11T17:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Recovery Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Recovery Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case?window=all) Price · $27.83 · 42.82 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $25.05 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.91% · 215 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 100.56% ±27.12 156 openings 30 days · 104.91% ±23.10 215 openings since tracking started · 104.91% ±23.10 215 openings 73.0% 100.7% 128.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case?window=7d) | 156 | 100.56% ±27.1 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case) | 215 | 104.91% ±23.1 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/recovery-case?window=all) | 215 | 104.91% ±23.1 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 219 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $220 339 gems | 44.0% | 15 | 11.0 | 1.37× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $61.08 93.97 gems | 12.2% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-well-worn) | 10.0% | $44.21 68.01 gems | 17.6% | 20 | 21.9 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $30.49 46.9 gems | 12.2% | 20 | 21.9 | 0.91× | | [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 10.0% | $15.93 24.51 gems | 6.4% | 31 | 21.9 | 1.42× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $8.33 12.82 gems | 3.3% | 16 | 21.9 | 0.73× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.57 8.57 gems | 2.2% | 24 | 21.9 | 1.10× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.84 4.37 gems | 1.1% | 18 | 21.9 | 0.82× | | [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.26 1.94 gems | 0.8% | 28 | 32.9 | 0.85× | | [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.31 0.48 gems | 0.2% | 36 | 32.9 | 1.10× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=recovery-case) [Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-well-worn) Hidden $27.83 42.82 gems $44.21 68.01 gems 1.59x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) Hidden $27.83 42.82 gems $15.93 24.51 gems 0.57x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) Hidden $27.83 42.82 gems $2.84 4.37 gems 0.10x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $27.83 42.82 gems $220 339 gems 7.92x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 42.82 gems $0.31 0.48 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) [☂️Chadur Protekciq☂](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%98%82%EF%B8%8FChadur%20Protekciq%E2%98%82) $27.83 42.82 gems $15.93 24.51 gems 0.57x 2026-11-10 16:00 UTC [P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) Hidden $27.83 42.82 gems $0.31 0.48 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:40 UTC [G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.83 42.82 gems $8.33 12.82 gems 0.30x 2026-11-10 15:40 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $27.83 42.82 gems $5.57 8.57 gems 0.20x 2026-11-10 15:40 UTC [Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-well-worn) Hidden $27.83 42.82 gems $44.21 68.01 gems 1.59x 2026-11-10 15:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.83 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 40.0% Ancient 10.0% mil spec 35.0% violet 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt