--- title: "Red Dawn case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Red Dawn ($203.36) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.50% over 95 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn rendered: 2026-11-11T23:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Red Dawn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Red Dawn A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn?window=all) Price · $203.36 · 313 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $183.03 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.50% · 95 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 58 openings · below min 30 days · 95 openings · below min since tracking started · 95 openings · below min -0.5% 75.3% 151.0% **Small sample.** 95 openings and 19.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn?window=24h) | 6 | 28.14% ±122.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn?window=7d) | 58 | 95.60% ±39.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn) | 95 | 96.50% ±30.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-dawn?window=all) | 95 | 96.50% ±30.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 95 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,514 2,330 gems | 24.8% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.75× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $613 943 gems | 23.4% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 10.0% | $546 840 gems | 29.8% | 6 | 9.5 | 0.63× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $207 319 gems | 11.3% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.84× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $62.22 95.73 gems | 3.4% | 14 | 9.5 | 1.47× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 10.0% | $58.50 90 gems | 3.2% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.16× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 10.0% | $57.15 87.93 gems | 3.1% | 3 | 9.5 | 0.32× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 40.0% | $3.85 5.93 gems | 0.8% | 41 | 38.0 | 1.08× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $1,514 2,330 gems 7.45x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $1,514 2,330 gems 7.45x 2026-11-05 12:45 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) [LiquidWater](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/LiquidWater) $203 313 gems $1,514 2,330 gems 7.45x 2026-11-05 02:23 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $1,514 2,330 gems 7.45x 2026-11-04 04:31 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $1,514 2,330 gems 7.45x 2026-11-03 10:20 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $613 943 gems 3.01x 2026-11-10 19:38 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) [trickytrash](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/trickytrash) $203 313 gems $613 943 gems 3.01x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $613 943 gems 3.01x 2026-11-08 23:52 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $613 943 gems 3.01x 2026-11-05 12:42 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $613 943 gems 3.01x 2026-11-05 01:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=red-dawn) [AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $203 313 gems $62.22 95.73 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $203 313 gems $62.22 95.73 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $207 319 gems 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $203 313 gems $3.85 5.93 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $203 313 gems $3.85 5.93 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [clepto holding](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/clepto%20holding) $203 313 gems $3.85 5.93 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $613 943 gems 3.01x 2026-11-10 19:38 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $203 313 gems $3.85 5.93 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:38 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [Bottavious](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Bottavious) $203 313 gems $3.85 5.93 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 19:38 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) Hidden $203 313 gems $57.15 87.93 gems 0.28x 2026-11-10 19:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $203 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 10.0% classified 30.0% restricted 50.0% Ancient 10.0% best hit $1,514 (7.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt