--- title: "Red Tape case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Red Tape ($60.27) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.52% over 1,088 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Red Tape](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Red Tape A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape?window=all) Price · $60.27 · 92.73 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $54.25 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.52% · 1,088 openings, odds method Variance · 12.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.89% ±62.75 124 openings 7 days · 92.69% ±21.80 1,027 openings 30 days · 89.52% ±21.18 1,088 openings since tracking started · 89.52% ±21.18 1,088 openings 24.5% 88.0% 151.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape?window=24h) | 124 | 87.89% ±62.8 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape?window=7d) | 1,027 | 92.69% ±21.8 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape) | 1,088 | 89.52% ±21.2 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/red-tape?window=all) | 1,088 | 89.52% ±21.2 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,094 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $2,817 4,334 gems | 13.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 133 | $1,670 2,569 gems | 23.1% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $697 1,073 gems | 12.9% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.91× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $260 400 gems | 14.4% | 45 | 32.8 | 1.37× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $148 228 gems | 13.7% | 54 | 54.7 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 10.0% | $53.89 82.9 gems | 9.9% | 113 | 109.4 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 15.0% | $17.84 27.45 gems | 4.9% | 147 | 164.1 | 0.90× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) | 15.0% | $11.58 17.82 gems | 3.2% | 169 | 164.1 | 1.03× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 25.0% | $7.76 11.94 gems | 3.6% | 282 | 273.5 | 1.03× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 25.0% | $3.01 4.63 gems | 1.4% | 265 | 273.5 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $2,817 4,334 gems 46.74x 2026-11-07 19:54 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $2,817 4,334 gems 46.74x 2026-11-05 22:10 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Rayan 肖恩](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Rayan%20%E8%82%96%E6%81%A9) $60.27 92.73 gems $2,817 4,334 gems 46.74x 2026-11-05 21:35 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $1,670 2,569 gems 27.70x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $1,670 2,569 gems 27.70x 2026-11-07 18:18 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $1,670 2,569 gems 27.70x 2026-11-06 09:29 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $1,670 2,569 gems 27.70x 2026-11-05 22:03 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $1,670 2,569 gems 27.70x 2026-11-05 21:35 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $1,670 2,569 gems 27.70x 2026-11-05 21:35 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) [ich hab kleine d](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ich%20hab%20kleine%20d) $60.27 92.73 gems $697 1,073 gems 11.57x 2026-11-10 23:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=red-tape) [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $7.76 11.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $11.58 17.82 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $11.58 17.82 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC [M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $53.89 82.9 gems 0.89x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $7.76 11.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) [ich hab kleine d](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ich%20hab%20kleine%20d) $60.27 92.73 gems $7.76 11.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:01 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $7.76 11.94 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $1,670 2,569 gems 27.70x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-factory-new) Hidden $60.27 92.73 gems $11.58 17.82 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) [Daxo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Daxo) $60.27 92.73 gems $148 228 gems 2.46x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $60.27 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Rifles 0.3% covert 0.8% classified 16.0% mil spec 58.0% restricted 25.0% best hit $2,817 (46.74x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt